NBA Commissioner Stern speaks to reporters in New York

NBA owners, players undersell progress because it is fragile

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Last time there was optimism about an NBA labor deal, David Stern was standing in the back of the union press conference joking with Billy Hunter, and the words “striking distance” were thrown around. Then it all blew up.

Wednesday night — really, Thursday morning — after 12 hours of talks that again led to optimism, both sides downplayed it. Stern was saying people should not read “optimism or pessimism” into anything and the players were talking about how much work was to be done.

It may blow up again, or this time the two sides may push through. But the attitude suggests the sides have learned the fragility of what they have and are trying hard to make it work. A. Sherrod Blakely of had a good quote along these lines.

“Remember, they have to go back and sell this to their people,” one source said. “No matter what they agree on, those people, the owners and the players, are the ones who will decide if there’s a deal or not. They’re not going to be happy, or show signs of being happy, until this deal is done.”

If one side hypes what happens, saying it made big gains, that would make it more likely the other side’s constituency would try to shoot the deal down. So hype was nowhere to be found Thursday morning.

We don’t know what progress was made in the meeting. The players went into this negotiating session giving up more revenue — down to the 50/50 deal the owners wanted — but expecting some give on system issues in return. The owners are not giving it all up. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo tweeted that progress was made on three of the five key system issues.

However, all those issues are interlocked with the revenue split tied in — pull on one loose thread and the whole thing comes apart. It’s fragile. It needs to be treated that way.

But maybe the best sign that there is real progress is anecdotal. Like this little exchange overheard by Henry Abbott of TrueHoop.

As he left the news conference early Thursday morning, after 12 hours of bargaining, Stern stopped in the crowded hallway to converse with union economist Kevin Murphy, who says he is trying to arrange his schedule to be here for the next session to start at noon.

Stern encouraged Murphy to show up, saying, “It will be a good day to be here.”

Don’t read much into that. But that doesn’t sound like a guy who think things will go badly Thursday. Just don’t expect Stern to sell the positives.

PBT Extra bold prediction: Is this Andrew Wiggins’ breakout season?

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Minnesota is going to be entertaining to watch this season. A healthy Ricky Rubio (hopefully) dishing at the point, Karl-Anthony Towns is already a high-IQ passer, and bench players such as Shabazz Muhammad and Adreian Payne have shown some skills.

Then there’s Andrew Wiggins. The reigning Rookie of the Year developed quickly last season — particularly his jump shot — and he should make a big leap this season. He’s going to dunk on people and end up in a lot of highlight packages while putting up a lot of points.

Enough to set the Minnesota Timberwolves single game scoring record, currently held at 52 by Mo Williams? That’s the question for this PBT Extra with Jenna Corrado.

Derrick Rose being back for start of season in question

Fred Hoiberg, Derrick Rose
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The Bulls have said Derrick Rose is about a week away from returning after suffering a facial fracture this preseason.

The start of the NBA season is two weeks from today (Oct. 27).

So Rose will be ready to go when the Bulls start their season that first night against Cleveland, right? Don’t bet on it, says Vincent Goodwill of, quoting coach Fred Hoiberg.

The opening night projection for a Derrick Rose return is a bit murky at this point, as the Bulls are taking a cautious approach to his recovery with Fred Hoiberg essentially ruling him out for the rest of the preseason.

“Most likely (out for the preseason),” Hoiberg said….

In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rose sit out the first handful of games, as the Bulls start the season with a three-game in four-night stretch starting Oct. 27 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is in two weeks.

“That will be in consideration, sure,” Hoiberg said. “We gotta make sure, he really hasn’t done anything and that will be a good two or three weeks where he has total inactivity, so just to throw him back out there going 100 percent with his speed and everything, you just don’t want to take any risks, chances, where it could be a lingering issue.”

Just what TNT and the NBA hoped for with an opening night Bulls vs. Cavaliers showcase: Kirk Hinrich vs. Mo Williams. (Don’t forget Kyrie Irving will miss the start of the season recovering from his knee surgery.)

Of course, this is the smart play for the Bulls who need to be thinking about getting Rose fully healthy and focusing on what condition he will be come April 27, not Oct. 27.

And of course, a lot of Bulls fans who are down on Rose will slam him for this. Even though the injury was a freak accident and the team is right to be patient.

Rose could play opening night, if he gets back to practice next week and can get closer to basketball shape. But I wouldn’t bet on it.