This lockout has never been as simple as one side negotiating against another in an effort to produce a fair deal. There are a number of factors circling the negotiations that inevitably have an impact on their progress and timeline. The NBPA still holds the threat of decertification, a breaking point from which there is no coming back. The NBA itself continues a campaign of half-truths and misinformation, as every press conference is turned into an opportunity to shape the opinions of the general public. The legal system attempts to unravel this mess from one end, and ineffective National Labor Relations Board hearings try to do so from the other.
All while the players fail to escape the most basic of lockout truths: due to simple economics, their adversaries are much more equipped to deal with a lockout than they are. Not only will the NBA’s offers get progressively worse as more and more games are missed, but those lost paychecks will hit some players hard and others harder. Chauncey Billups spoke on that subject when he joined Stephen A. Smith on ESPN Radio in New York (via Sports Radio Interviews):
What are you hearing from other players? Is it getting to a point where they feel like it’s just time to make a deal even if it’s a 50-50 split because it’s better than no deal at all?:
“Honestly, you’ve got 400-some players and obviously the general body of the league are not in my position … that are maybe as in stable position of myself or some of the older, aging veterans. We have to be sensitive to the fact that some of those guys are young, although we, for the last two and a half, three years, said, ‘Prepare yourself; save your money.’ … We’ve got to know that some guys didn’t. … Then you’ve the guys that are really, really involved in the situation saying, ‘No, you don’t really understand what that 50-50′s really going to do going forward. You’re just worried about today.”
…Do you expect there to be a season?:
“Man, I think the only way I can really answer that question is just with being hopeful and saying, ‘Yeah, I hope so.’ I hope so, but I could see it going either way.”
You really think the players would be able to do that?:
“I’ve spoken to a lot of players and I could see a lot of players wanting to do that. If you’re asking me if the general body of the NBA is willing to do that, willing to lose a year’s salary, I don’t think guys would be willing to do that. That’s going to be a position and a bridge that we’re going to have to cross when we come that.”
Billups is merely articulating what most of us already know, but it’s an important point that shouldn’t be forgotten at any stage in these negotiations. Even with help from the Kobe Bryants of the bunch, there will be players who didn’t prepare well enough for the lockout, there are those who are still on their rookie deals and didn’t heed warnings to save, and there are minimum salary guys who simply may not have the coin on hand. The ticking of the negotiating clock is audible; the players have only so long before the union’s internal pressures reach their brink, and when that moment comes, all bets are off. Maybe the players will buckle and take a poor deal, or maybe they’ll decertify in desperation. All we know is that things are only going to get more tense for the players as the conversation continues, making each meeting in the short-term all the more valuable.