Owners, players to meet together with mediator Tuesday

Leave a comment

Tuesday is the latest key day in a long line of key days that has led us down a path where two weeks of the NBA season have been lost and more are threatened.

Tuesday NBA owners and players will sit down with the respected George Cohen — director of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service — who will try to help bridge the remaining gap and get the two sides to make a deal that could save the majority of the NBA season. He cannot force the two sides to agree a deal, but sometimes a neutral third party can get the two sides to listen, to see things in a different light. He can help build a consensus.

But he can only help them reach that consensus if both sides really want to reach a deal.

By all accounts the two sides are not that far apart — just a handful of percentage points (six on formal offers, three on informal) on how to split basketball related income (although each percentage point does represent about $40 million, so it’s a lot of money). There also remains a divide on the system issues, specifically how stiff a luxury tax there should be and length of contracts. There is a lot of work yet to do.

The damage and risks are mounting for both sides. The longer the lockout drags on, the more money lost, eating away at whatever dollars they think they are gaining through taking a hardline stand in negotiations. The longer this drags out the more damage the two sides do with fans.

Contrary to what the owners and players think, there will be no winners in this negotiation. Not with games missed. Sure, the owners will come out with a lot more money in their pockets than they did before this lockout started (something true even if they took the players offer of 47 percent of BRI). But the damage of perception has already started and is only going to get worse. Casual fans see millionaires and billionaires fighting over how to divide up $4 billion of the fans’ money during the worst recession in America in generations and they are disgusted. As they should be. While the negotiations have their own internal logic, from the outside the entire process comes off a stupid.

Union president Derek Fisher seemed to acknowledge that, as quoted at the Land O’ Lakers blog at ESPNLosAngeles.com.

“But relatively speaking, we know where the NBA, where this business, the game of basketball, those opportunities that have been afforded to us that other people can’t necessarily relate to, so we get that part of it. So that’s not why we’re not trying in any way, really, to look for sympathy or empathy from our fans in that regard. We don’t need them or want them to feel sorry for us because we’ll make less money because we’ve given up more percentage. That’s not what this is about.”

The bigger issue for the owners and players is not a lack of empathy for their cause, it’s that feeling of disgust fans have with the process turning to apathy. That will happen more and more as this process drags out. Fans will move on and be slow to return. Maybe Cohen can get that through the thick skulls on both sides.

We’ll see. Because the “at least they are still talking” optimism has worn out. Even with a mediator in the room.

As expected, Blake Griffin reportedly opted out of contract with Clippers

1 Comment

Doc Rivers says he wants Blake Griffin back with the Clippers next season.

The bigger question: Does Blake Griffin want to be back with the Clippers next season?

The decision is in Griffin’s hands as he has done what was expected, opting out of his contract for the coming season, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.

A number of teams — Boston, Miami, and others — are expected to take a run at Griffin. (In Boston’s case, he’s a backup plan to Gordon Hayward, but there will be conversations.)

What Chris Paul — also expected to opt out and become a free agent this summer — and Griffin choose to do will help set the market. They are two of the biggest free agent names out there where they could switch teams (Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are staying put). If they take their time making a decision, it leaves the Clippers in a bind — they have to wait to hear from these two before starting replacing or rebuilding, but by the time they know other players may have decided — and could bottleneck the free agent process.

The Clippers are going to be one interesting team to watch this summer.

Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope suspended two games for DUI

AP Photo
1 Comment

This is the standard penalty for coaches and players hit with a DUI. I don’t think the penalty is stiff enough in general for a serious issue, but this is the precedent that has been set.

Detroit Pistons’ guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been suspended two games by the NBA for “pleading guilty to operating a motor vehicle while intoxicated, in violation of the law of the State of Michigan,” the NBA announced. He will miss the first two games of next season.

This will not stop Caldwell-Pope from getting PAID this summer.

A quality wing defender who hit 35 percent from three last season, he plays a position of need for a lot of teams and he is a restricted free agent. Other teams with cap space — Brooklyn and Sacramento come to mind — could step in and give him a max or near max offer. Then Stan Van Gundy needs to decide if he is going to match. He may not have much of a choice, if he wants to keep Andre Drummond and build an inside-out team around him, he needs Caldwell-Pope, and the Pistons don’t have the cap space to replace him.

One way or another, Caldwell-Pope is in line for a massive pay raise. This suspension will not slow teams, it just takes a little money out of his pocket.

 

Lonzo Ball tops Rookie of the Year early betting odds

3 Comments

If you are betting right now on next year’s NBA Rookie of the Year award, you are a die-hard fan of your team and their new addition. Or, you have a problem and need to seek help. Maybe both.

Either way, the people at the gambling site Bovada have posted the early betting odds for the ROY award for next season.

Lonzo Ball (Lakers) 5/2
Ben Simmons (76ers) 3/1
Markelle Fultz (76ers) 5/1
De”Aaron Fox (Kings) 7/1
Josh Jackson (Suns) 9/1
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) 9/1
Jonathan Isaac (Magic) 16/1
Malik Monk (Hornets) 16/1
Dennis Smith (Mavericks) 16/1
John Collins (Hawks) 20/1
Justin Jackson (Trail Blazers) 22/1
Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) 22/1

Yes, Ben Simmons is in the mix.

The two bets I like here, if I were a gambling man, are Jackson in Phoenix and Dennis Smith in Dallas. I doubt Smith wins it, but Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said after the draft Smith will start for them next year, which means he gets opportunities and can rack up assists feeding Dirk Nowitzki at the elbow for a year.

Jackson is going to be unleashed in an up-tempo Suns offense where he will be the defender they need on the wing, play with high energy, and get buckets in transition. Winning ROY is as much about fit and opportunity as talent, and Jackson has landed in a good spot.

Paul George-Gordon Hayward-Celtics rumor doesn’t add up

AP Photo/George Frey
3 Comments

Paul George reportedly wants to play with Gordon Hayward. George is also reportedly willing to join his desired team (universally accepted to be the Lakers) by means that don’t guarantee the highest salary.

Could the Celtics – who are pursuing Hayward in free agency – leverage those conditions into getting George?

Adam Kauffman of 98.5 The Sports Hub:

I don’t what George would do, but it’d be a MAJOR financial disadvantage to go this route.

There a couple ways it could happen – George getting extended-and-trade or George getting traded then signing an extension six months later. The latter would allow George to earn more than the former, but even if he pledged to sign an extension, would the Celtics trade for him knowing he’d have six months to change his mind if he doesn’t like Boston as much as anticipated?

There’s a bigger issue, anyway. Both extension routes would leave George earning far less than simply letting his contract expire then signing a new deal, either with his incumbent team or a new one.

Here’s a representation of how much George could earn by:

  • Letting his contract expire and re-signing (green)
  • Letting his contract expire and signing elsewhere (purple)
  • Getting traded and signing an extension six months later (gray)
  • Signing an extend-and-trade (yellow)

image

Expire & re-sign Expire & leave Trade, extend later Extend-and-trade
2018-19 $30.6 million $30.6 million $23,410,750 $23,410,750
2019-20 $33.0 million $32.1 million $25,283,610 $24,581,287
2020-21 $35.5 million $33.7 million $27,156,470 $25,751,825
2021-22 $37.9 million $35.2 million $29,029,330
2022-23 $40.4 million
Total $177.5 million $131.6 million $104,880,158 $73,743,861

Firm numbers are used when it’s just a calculation based on George’s current contract. When necessary to project the 2018-19 salary cap, I rounded.

The Celtics could theoretically renegotiate-and-extend, but that would require cap room that almost certainly wouldn’t exist after signing Hayward.

Simply, it’s next to impossible to see this happening. It’d be too costly to George.