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Tuesday’s labor talks could salvage season, but don’t bet on it

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The days of “at least they are still talking” being good enough are over.

Just the fact that NBA owners and the players union were sitting down in the same room together was progress enough for a while (because that was an improvement). No longer. Unless Commissioner David Stern and union director Billy Hunter leave a New York hotel Tuesday smiling and talking of serious progress toward the framework for a deal, there is no real chance of the NBA season starting as scheduled Nov. 1.

And it’s hard to see how the two sides — which have been meeting for two years without a deal — are going to suddenly find common ground in one day. Everyone needs to give up more to make a deal work but neither side seems willing to do so. Stern cannot just try to break the union, he has to give the players some victories that they can call a win and a fair deal (why else would they vote to ratify it?). The players — who have already given back more than $150 million a year in total salaries — will have to accept some additional spending restrictions by the owners (a more severe luxury tax on big spending teams) and more.

Both sides said after Monday’s smaller group meeting that Tuesday shapes up as the critical day. A number of owners and players will be in the room and will try to find their way to the framework of a deal.

If they don’t, expect an announcement from the league quickly that all of the NBA’s preseason games have been cancelled (already all games before Oct. 15 have been called off). A second announcement postponing the start of the NBA’s regular season will not be far behind. (It will take about a month from the day a handshake deal is reached to when the first NBA regular season game tips off, and right now there are 28 days left until the scheduled opener.)

The big issue remains the split of “basketball related income” or BRI. In the last labor deal the players got 57 percent and the owners blame that split for why they lost $300 million last season (a number in dispute). In their most recent discussions, the players have reportedly come down to 53 percent, but the owners are only offering the players about 48 percent. That is roughly a $200 million gap in year one of at least a six year deal. The bigger key is aggragate dollars over the life of the labor deal, but if the two sides are that far apart in year one it’s not going to get any better for them in year five. (I still expect the final deal to be around 51/49 with the players getting the larger share).

Beyond that there are issues of system — should there be a hard salary cap (the owners have backed off an NHL-style cap demand) or more like a soft cap that existed before? What kind of exceptions to the cap should their be and how many (for example, teams likely will have one “Bird rule” exception per year, where they can go over the cap to keep their own free agent)? What will the luxury tax structure be? None of this has been agreed to, either.

Then there are the outside pressures, like agents who are considering forcing decertification of the union against Hunter’s wishes, something reported by Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo. This would be the nuclear option, essentially agents trying to oust union chief Hunter and throw the issue to the courts. If there is no deal Tuesday, you can expect some agents to push for this.

With all that, it’s hard to see how the framework of a deal can be reached Tuesday. The gap is too wide and neither side seems willing to build a bridge. The owners have the leverage right now and seem intent on using it to get a resounding victory, even if that means games are lost.

It’s hard to see how the full NBA season can be salvaged out of all this. But if it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen Tuesday.

Report: Lakers signing Zach Auguste

PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 27:  Zach Auguste #30 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish celebrates after a basket in the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament East Regional Final at Wells Fargo Center on March 27, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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The Lakers have given 15 players – the regular-season roster limit – a guaranteed salary for next season.

But they could open a roster spot by trading (ha!) or waiving Nick Young.

Who could fill it? One candidate: Undrafted Notre Dame big man Zach Auguste.

Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders:

Auguste is probably getting a partial guarantee, but I wouldn’t pencil him in for the regular-season roster just yet – even if the Lakers waive Young. I expect the Lakers to sign multiple players to partially guaranteed deals and bring them to camp to compete.

If they waive Auguste, the Lakers could assign his D-League rights to their affiliate, the D-Fenders. Ideally, though, he’d make the regular-season roster – but that outlook will probably be true for multiple Lakers by the time training camp begins.

Auguste is a skilled interior scorer who excels in the pick-and-roll and can also post up. He improved greatly as a rebounder last season, but how much of that is due to outgrowing his competition as a senior? He’s already 23. Auguste has shown no range on his jumper, and he’s not a rim protector. Despite his mobility, his pick-and-roll defense is also lacking.

Good for the Lakers getting him in their pipeline, but don’t expect too much.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim: Carmelo Anthony probably won’t win NBA championship

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - AUGUST 21:  Carmelo Anthony #15 of the United States poses with Team USA assistant coach Jim Boeheim after defeating Serbia in the Men's Gold medal game on Day 16 of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1 on August 21, 2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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Jim Boeheim urged Carmelo Anthony to leave the Knicks in 2014. The Syracuse coach suggested the Bulls for his former player.

At the heart of Boeheim’s pitch: He wanted Anthony to win an NBA championship.

Well, Anthony discarded Boeheim’s advice and re-signed with the Knicks. So, Boeheim is predicting the outcome he always predicted if Anthony returned to New York.

Boeheim, via Mike Walters of Syracuse.com:

“He’s unlikely to win an NBA title,” Boeheim said. “He’s never been on a team that even had a remote chance of winning an NBA title. As a player, all you can do is try to make your team better and every team he’s been on he’s made them a lot better. Denver hadn’t done anything prior to him getting there and he took them into the playoffs. They weren’t going to beat the Lakers or the Spurs. In those years, they won the championship most of the time.

“But he’s always made his team better,” added Boeheim. “It’s obvious. You look back on your total basketball experience and he had a great high school team, he won the NCAA championship and he’s won three gold medals in the Olympics. That’s a pretty good resume.”

This is a classic controversy. Boeheim caused it by being honest.

Anthony probably won’t win a title.

He’s 32, playing for a team with a middling-at-best supporting cast and seems content remaining in New York. His most valuable teammate, Kristaps Porzingis, is so young, his prime might not overlap with Anthony’s. The Knicks limited themselves in the next few seasons by guaranteeing 31-year-old Joakim Noah more than $72 million over the next four years.

Most players are unlikely to win another championship. Most of exceptions play for the Warriors. I’m not even sure LeBron James is more likely than not to win another title.

Anthony sure isn’t.

That’s not the end of the world, and as Boeheim – and Anthony – said, Anthony can still have a good résumé. But it has to sting for such a prominent basketball figure in the state of New York and proud Anthony supporter tell the truth so bluntly.

Derrick Rose: Knicks ‘have a chance to win every game, and in the league, that’s rare’

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Derrick Rose called the Knicks a super team, which is absurd. When people called the absurd comment absurd, Rose doubled down.

How else can Rose show his absurd confidence in the Knicks?

Rose, via Nick DePaula of Yahoo Sports:

I think we have a chance to win every game, and in the league, that’s rare.

Let’s give Rose the benefit of the doubt. I think he meant the Knicks are capable of winning each time they take the court, not that they’ll go 82-0.

That’s probably true.

I can’t, today, call any single game on the Knicks’ schedule a guaranteed loss. Sure, some games are harder than others. The Knicks probably won’t win at Golden State in their sixth city in 10 nights. But they could. The Lakers beat the Warriors last season. Anything is possible.

Which is to say the Knicks being capable of winning every game is not rare. Nearly every team – and maybe even every team – can, on August 23, point to each game on its schedule and call it winnable.

But Derrick Rose is gonna Derrick Rose.

Trail Blazers C Festus Ezeli out six weeks after knee injection

CLEVELAND, OH - JANUARY 18: Festus Ezeli #31 of the Golden State Warriors yells to his team during the first half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena on January 18, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
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At one point, Festus Ezeli was predicted to land $50 million over three years in free agency.

But even in this wild market, injury concerns forced him to settle for just $8.4 million guaranteed from the Trail Blazers.

Their calculated risk isn’t paying off so far.

CSN Northwest:

Portland Trail Blazers center Festus Ezeli had his left knee injected with a bone marrow aspirate concentrate and Orthovisc today in Chicago.

The injection, performed by Dr. Brian Cole, is intended to alleviate pain and improve function.

Ezeli will be sidelined for six weeks.

This timeline would have Ezeli out for the beginning of training camp but back well before the regular season begins. Even if this puts Ezeli behind schedule, Portland has center depth in Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard and Ed Davis.

The Trail Blazers had to know they couldn’t completely depend on Ezeli to remain healthy.

Still, he’s a rim protector unlike Portland’s other options. The Blazers lose versatility and the ability to play better defense while he’s out.