Where is the eventual middle ground of players/owners deal?

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Right now, the NBA owners are playing hardball and the players are playing goalie. The owners want to change the system, the players are trying to keep as much of the current system as they can. Both sides are dug in.

Eventually there will be a deal. The question is, where will the eventual middle ground be?

A guy with maybe the best grasp on this in the media is NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement guru Larry Coon — he of the Salary Cap FAQ, ESPN and a friend of this site. He spelled out where he thinks the middle ground will be in speaking with Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld.

But to get to the end game, we need to talk about the beginning.

The real issue in the talks is not contract lengths or a hard cap, it is about how the whole pie gets divided. In the last NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, the players got 57 percent of the NBA’s revenues in salary no matter what — last season salaries did not reach that level so the owners had to write an additional check to reach that threshold. The players will argue that not all the money the owners make goes into that split, and the real number is close to 50 percent of the league’s revenue goes to the players.

Doesn’t matter. The owners want a larger slice of the pie and right now are playing hardball to get it. Coon lays it out.

“The owners are seeking a significant reduction in the players’ share of the pie,” said Coon. “They don’t care whether they get it immediately (salary rollbacks) or over time (freezing total compensation at $2 billion for 10 years) as long as they get it.”

Coon also thinks the owners have the most leverage in these talks because they can hold out without games longer than the players. More than one owner is willing to sacrifice the season to reach their goals.

“The owners have most of the leverage in this dispute, so the players can’t expect to reach a compromise that splits their differences right down the middle,” said Coon. “Make no mistake — the new CBA will tilt heavily in favor of the owners. Without an unexpected bail-out from the (National Labor Relations Board, where the players filed a complaint), the players eventually will be forced to choose between accepting a deal they don’t like, continuing to wait (without income) for a better deal that may never come, or rolling the dice with decertification and an antitrust lawsuit.”

While some agents have pushed for decertification, the union has not gone there. Yet.

So where do we end up once they get around to a deal?

“A likely end-point in the dispute may be a system that preserves guaranteed contracts and the current soft cap, but eliminates or reduces many of the exceptions that allowed teams to spend with wild abandon. The new CBA could see a reduction in contract lengths, the elimination of sign-and-trade deals, and the relaxation of trade rules. As long as the players’ overall revenue guarantee is significantly reduced, the owners can make it work.”

The bottom line, the players can keep the current system but have to give up slices of the pie to do so (which will mean lower salaries or a shrunk middle class). Right now they are not willing to do so, but that will change. Eventually.

Jamal Crawford says Lonzo Ball should not change his shot

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Lonzo Ball‘s shot has become a running gag around the NBA. During pregame warmups this season it looked like LeBron James and Joel Embiid mocked/tried to imitate it. TNT’s Inside the NBA was asking if it was worse than Charles Barkley’s golf swing, and the crew on that show mocks it all the time.

Ball is shooting 30.3 percent overall this season, and 23 percent from three. He’s shooting just 42.1 percent in the restricted area (it’s not just his jumper that is off). He’s shooting 37.5 percent on pull-up jumpers. He’s shooting 22.5 percent on shots when there is nobody within six feet of him (stats via NBA.com).

Is it time to tear down Ball’s awkward release and rework his jumper? Jamal Crawford, a guy who knows something about getting buckets in the NBA, said no, speaking on CBS Sports’ Flagrant 2 Podcast.

“No, I wouldn’t (change his shot). He’s done it his whole life. Even if he struggled, I’m sure he’s struggled, but when he makes 10 in a row you won’t change it then so I’d just keep it consistent.”

Crawford also said he sees a real star in Ball.

“Star. Absolutely a star. I love watching him play. He plays the right way. He doesn’t play for stats. He’ll give the ball up early when he could easily hold it to get an assist. He’s making the right play if it was a hockey assist he’d get 20 a game cause he’s always passing up early. He seems like a great teammate. If you look at all his interviews…he’s always well spoken he’s always about the team.”

Luke Walton has the Lakers players taking and making 100 threes at each practice, and he continues to encourage Ball to shoot his way out of this slump. Magic Johnson has said the Lakers would not change Ball’s jumper during the season.

But if Ball does not find a rhythm and is under 40 percent for the season on jumpers, come next summer the Lakers have some decisions to make. And tearing down and rebuilding Ball’s shot is a long process that will take more than one summer of hard work.

PBT Podcast: Celtics win over Warriors, all things Boston with A. Sherrod Blakely

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The Boston Celtics are for real.

In case you had any doubts, they ran their streak to 14 wins in a row by coming from 17 down – twice — to beat the Golden State Warriors. The Celtics have the best defense in the NBA, and it threw the Warriors off their game, something few teams have been able to do over the past few years.

Kurt Helin welcomes in A. Sherrod Blakely of NBC Sports Boston to talk about what this win means to the Celtics, why their defense is so good, how Kyrie Irving is fitting in, how young stars such as Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are rising up, and what is the deal with Marcus Smart. Also, there is a lot of Brad Stevens love.

As always, you can check out the podcast below, listen and subscribe via iTunes at ApplePodcasts.com/PBTonNBC, subscribe via the fantastic Stitcher app, check us out on Google play, or check out the NBC Sports Podcast homepage and archive at Art19.

Grizzlies’ Mike Conley out at least two weeks with sore heel, Achilles

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Injuries are already starting to shape the playoff chase in the West — Rudy Gobert is out for at least a month in Utah, and the Clippers have lost six in a row as they battle injuries to three starters.

Now add the Memphis Grizzlies to the mix.

Mike Conley, the point guard who, along with Marc Gasol, is crucial to Memphis’ success, will be out at least two weeks to rest a sore left heel and Achilles, the team announced Friday. He could be out longer, Conley has had issues with this Achilles before, the team will want to be cautious, and by far the best treatment is rest.

Conley averages 17.1 points per game, is a great floor general running the offense, and is a quality defender at the point.

Memphis is 7-7 on the season and tied with Oklahoma City for the final playoff slot in the West, but the Grizzlies have dropped six of their last eight. What’s more, they are entering a gauntlet part of the schedule without Conley: Their next game is against Houston, then Portland, and in the next 10 they have the Nuggets, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, and Spurs (twice). The danger is they fall far enough back from the playoff chase they struggle to catch up again.

Expect to see a lot more Tyreke Evans, who has been strong as a sixth man but now will have much more asked of him. Also, more playmaking duties will fall to Gasol, working out of the elbow, and both Chandler Parsons and Mario Chalmers will get the ball in their hands. The question is what do they do with it.

Stephen Curry, was Warriors/Celtics a Finals preview? “Very, very likely, right?”

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The Golden State Warriors remain the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA title.

Thursday night, the Boston Celtics earned some validation that they belong in the conversation. Using a stymieing defense that threw off the vaunted Warriors offense, Boston came from 17 down in the third quarter to beat the Warriors.

With the Cavaliers stumbling out of the gate, does this make the Warriors/Celtics game a Finals preview? Stephen Curry (who was 3-of-14 shooting with four turnovers on the night) said yes, as you can see in the NBC Sports Bay Area video above.

“Very, very likely, right?” Curry said. “They’re playing the best right now in the East. Obviously, they need to beat Cleveland, who’s done it three years in a row. We’ll see, but I heard the weather’s great here in June.”

The weather in Boston is great for a short window in the spring, then the humidity kicks in. But that’s not the point.

I came into this season thinking the Celtics were a year away still, and when Gordon Hayward went down it strengthened that belief. But this team is a contender now — they are far better defensively than expected, and young players Jaylen Brown (22 points against the Warriors) and Jayson Tatum have stepped up more than expected. Kyrie Irving and Al Horford have developed a fast chemistry. And Brad Stephens is proving he is in the very upper echelon of NBA coaches.

It’s not even Thanksgiving, talk of the NBA Finals is premature. Curry is right, the Celtics still have to go through LeBron James and his Cavaliers to reach the Finals, which will not be easy.

Still, June basketball in Boston seems like a real possibility again.