The magnetic nature of markets and why we need a weighted lottery

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Over at TrueHoop, Kevin Arnovitz is the latest in a long stream of really thoughtful people to start trotting down a path that is hyper-supportive of the free market and very skeptical of the value of any handouts. The topic in this particular instance is the draft, and how if the 2011-2012 season is lost in totality, perhaps the NBA should abandon the draft. The concept is to allow players to just enter as free agents and let the chips fall where they may. Its foundation is based on a conversation between Malcolm Gladwell and Bill Simmons (because if I’m searching for practical solutions to real-life problems, THAT’s exactly where I’m starting) about how the real answer to contention is free agency, not the draft, and because it’s illogical to reward losing, every team should have an equal shot in the lottery. Arnovitz takes it a few steps further. It’s the NBA deregulation equivalent of saying “really, that toxic spill is the ducks’ problem.” But Arnovitz makes a good case as he always does:

If you wanted to extend Gladwell’s idea even further, why not eliminate the draft altogether in 2012 in the event of a lost season? Declare every eligible incoming player a free agent and allow the market (and the restraints of the salary cap) to dictate where they land.

We often assume that small-market teams would get the shaft, but are we absolutely certain that Harrison Barnes would agree to take a minimum salary (for the sake of this exercise, let’s say there’s a “rookie minimum exception” of $2 million for teams with zero cap room) from the Lakers when Sacramento could back up the truck for his services and guarantee him the starting small forward position for years to come? Would a Jared Sullinger or Anthony Davis be willing to play out of position as a fourth option in Miami for millions less than he could earn in Indiana?

We don’t know, but for a league that’s grappling for a new financial model and examining issues like revenue sharing and competitive balance, it would be useful to find out. In a draft-less world, rookies would be paid at market value and teams that have been frugal would have an advantage over those who have spent lavishly. Most incoming players would have to balance factors like dollars, touches and the allure of a marquee market.

via What a canceled season could mean for the draft – TrueHoop Blog – ESPN.

Couple of thoughts here, and because I’m not a good enough writer after forty-nine days of lockout brain damage, I’m going to use bullets. That’s right. Bullets.

  • As a starting point, let’s take a quick review of contending teams in the NBA. The Spurs were the top seed in the league, and have won four championships in twelve years. Plus they’re a small market. It’s a good thing that they’ve negotiated free agency so well to get Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Gino… oh, no. Well, hold on. Oklahoma City has all that cap space, and they were within range of the Finals, everyone says they’re going to be champions at some point with this core. I remember when they made that offer to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in… no. Well, hey, the Celtics did completely build their core around the guys they brought in in 2007. Not like they drafted Paul Pierce and then used younger players they drafted to pull in Garnett and Ray All… whoops. I’ve run the joke dry, so, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Dwyane Wade all drafted. Can you win with free agency? Yeah, pretty sure the Heat prove that theory, but it’s a combination of both.
  • Next, there’s this prevailing concept that there is no reason to try and weight things against small markets, that the open market will take care of itself. Getting beyond the absurdity that is the fact the Lakers have been in 31 of 63 Finals and both Boston and Los Angeles have more combined championships than the Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, 49ers, Packers, and Dolphins, a quick trip down memory lane brings up a few fun ones. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar sticking Milwaukee and heading to LA for his prime, Shaq abandoning Orlando for the same, Dennis Johnson’s career in whole, Bill Walton all the same, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Amar’e Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, we’re not really lacking for examples of the cream rising to the largely populated top. But let’s just take those as outliers, rare random exceptions in a sea of small market success. In fact, let’s get past the whole impact of markets in general.
  • The real problem isn’t even necessarily markets. It’s the perception that winning is success and that success is any sort of indicator year by year of whether the team is run well. That sounds moronic, right? How can it be wrong to determine how good a team is by looking at their success? The answer is that these things go in cycles. Let’s take Jared Sullinger for example. Let’s say Jared enters the big ol’ open market and the Spurs are interested for a lower price and the Hornets are interested for a slightly higher value. Arnovitz is correct that Sullinger will weigh the fact that if he goes to San Antonio he’ll be sitting behind Tim Duncan and if he goes to New Orleans he takes David West’s spot. But Sullinger’s going to look at the two choices and examine which has a better chance of winning a title. Because while players love money, in their youth there’s also the idea that they can earn the money later. Win now, and your market value goes up immediately. But in reality, he wouldn’t sign with San Antonio. Or New Orleans. He’d probably sign with the Lakers. Why? Because when Pau Gasol is gone, he’s the Lakers’ power forward. Then he gets paid. So he gets to compete for a title now, take over when Gasol is gone and get the money, and on top of it? These are kids. Young men. And young men care about how cool something is. Brandon Jennings is a Buck and is happy enough about it. But he wanted to be a Knick because that’s cool. And that factor, which is exaggerated by the success of larger markets, is self-propelling.
  • The real harm in a system without the draft isn’t to small market teams like New Orleans, or San Antonio. It’s to places like Minnesota, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Cleveland. Places that have terrible weather in the winter, no big reputation for being awesome, aren’t mentioned in songs, and are the kinds of places people on the coasts don’t care about. That’s a huge part in all this.
  • You know what’s really frustrating? Back before the internet was really booming, when you needed an immediate weather update on a huge deadly storm in the Midwest, you went to the Weather Channel. Your local stations couldn’t afford updates in the middle of the day on a Saturday, so you went to the Weather Channel to find out if your house was going to be blown away. Unfortunately, the only updates you could get would be on how the weather was in Long Beach (GUESS WHAT, IT IS SUNNY AND 75 AGAIN TODAY!) or Long Island (mild rain showers, be sure to get those umbrellas, New York!). The results is that while houses are being blown away, the Weather Channel is focused on places that don’t have bad weather. That’s kind of the same deal here. Milwaukee’s ownership hasn’t been flawless, but they haven’t been cheap. They haven’t drafted exceptionally well, but they haven’t been terrible. But trying to compete in a free agency only system would drive them into nothingness. Which a lot of people are fine with because that means they end up getting contracted. Most of these people live on coasts and root for teams with great chances of winning a title next year.
  • In reality, it’s good for the league to have some sort of idea that anyone can win a title, that the rest of the teams aren’t just around to be Washington Generals. I can definitely buy into the concept that we shouldn’t reward bad ownership (yet we do under the current pro-big-market system by letting Donald Sterling make a profit), and that this isn’t about helping out those who can’t help themselves. But creating change is good. Having a fanbase go from good to bad makes it more interesting when they have a revival. It lets them ease up on costs for a while as they rebuild, and re-evaluate. And having teams go from bad to good is essential in growing the fanbase of the entire league.
  • Now, again, Arnovitz’ central idea is that it’s worth seeing if an open market would result in Sullinger signing with Milwaukee, or Charlotte, or Brooklyn with the decision weighted on what’s best for the player. But the risk is too great of some teams never being able to sign any young players, constantly over-paying for marginal veterans and staying in the range of terrible-to-barely-mediocre. Proof of that lies with the Bobcats of the past several years. They weren’t denied draft picks, they just traded or sold them. The Bobcats tried to rely on veterans, they used the trade market as their free agency counter. The result was a disaster it will take years to dig out of.
  • Maybe it’s possible that all markets really are equal and that these 18 and 19 year-olds will follow the advice of their agents and make the best overall decision considering all factors. Maybe we’ll see equality throughout the land and it will serve only to further punish those teams who aren’t ran well. But it’s just as likely that teams that are run well but not exceptionally so in places that don’t have metro systems will find themselves tumbling down the wheel of disaster, with no way to slow their momentum or recover from a free agency departure or a bad injury. The bad get worse, and the worse get even worse, unless they’re metropolitan, in which case they lean on legacy and endorsements and they’re fine. At some point, we’ve got to decide whether we as fans want a league of teams or to seek out the elimination of those teams who aren’t doing well at this particular moment in time.

One reason Markelle Fultz happy to be Sixers over Celtic? Philadelphia has Chick-fil-As

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For about a month, from the day of the NBA Draft Lottery until less than a week before the draft, it was assumed Markelle Fultz would be a Celtic. And he said he was good with that — he’s the No. 1 pick going to a 53-win team that is thinking title contention. That doesn’t happen often.

Then that top pick was traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, and suddenly Fultz was going to be paired with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Fultz liked that a lot, and he liked the city a lot.

Why? Because they have Chick-fil-A restaurants. Check out what Fultz wrote in the The Players’ Tribune, an article titled “What’s Up, Philly.” (Hat tip Inceptions at NBA Reddit)

Then (Fultz’s agent) Keith hit me up and said, “New plan. Philly.”

I was just waking up. So I was like, “O.K., cool. Do they have Chick-fil-A there?”

A crispy chicken sandwich for breakfast. It’s kind of like my good luck charm. Keith never got back to me about that important question. So I found out for myself. I googled it immediately.

Philly does have Chick-fil-A. It has six, actually. Seven if you count the one at the airport. Boston has zero Chick-fil-As, for what it’s worth.

Are restaurants becoming a new recruiting tool? “I know you’re thinking of signing in San Antonio, but we have far more Chipotle’s per capita.” “There’s a Cheesecake Factory just down the street from our practice facility.”

I give it four years, max, before Fultz switches to a slightly healthier breakfast choice, at the requestion of Philly’s training staff.

Warriors newbie Jordan Bell gets call from Draymond Green

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OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — Jordan Bell knows he will most certainly get an earful from Draymond Green come training camp as a Golden State Warriors rookie.

Green came looking for him on draft night with a FaceTime attempt after acquiring his new teammate’s digits from general manager Bob Myers. But Bell – out with friends celebrating – didn’t answer because the number was unfamiliar.

Bell decided he would text back instead.

“I was like, `Who is this?”‘ Bell recalled Friday, when he was formally introduced and given his new No. 2 Golden State jersey at team headquarters.

“He didn’t reply so I called the number and said, `Who is this?’ Then he was like, `Yo, I FaceTimed you, hang up right now and FaceTime me right back, don’t call me,”‘ Bell said. “I FaceTimed him and he didn’t answer. I was like, all right. I waited like five seconds and I called him back FaceTime and he answered … and we started talking about it. He was like, `Enjoy this night, celebrate, it only happens once, but after this time we have to get back to work, we’re trying to get rings over here.”‘

The NBA champions began the night Thursday without a draft pick but acquired Bell in a trade with the Bulls. The 6-foot-9 forward and Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year out of Oregon was the 38th overall selection by Chicago.

Bell had been upset he dropped so far in the draft, then everything changed once the Warriors made a move for him. Green was drafted 35th overall out of Michigan State in 2012 and still has a chip on his shoulder about it. In fact, he can name every team in order and its selection above him that draft year.

“Draymond will be a fun challenge for you,” Myers said. “Draymond texted me as I was driving home and he said, `What the’ and then expletive `is your problem’ to me? So you can fill in the blank. Then he said, `I have to hear about this’ expletive `on the internet, you didn’t’ expletive `tell me about it.’ So I couldn’t text and drive so I called him and I said, `OK, all right, calm down.”‘

Green demanded he be able to talk to Bell, so Myers obliged with the new rookie’s contact info.

Green’s teammates are accustomed to his intensity. He even yells at them from time to time.

“He’s like our team mom in a way,” joked Myers. “He’s the one that you have to kind of get through him.”

 

Rumor: Cavaliers could wait to chase Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony after buyouts

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The first reaction to hearing Jimmy Butler was traded to Minnesota on draft night was “the Bulls only got what back?”

The second reaction was “does Dwyane Wade still opt in?”

Yes, he does, and as he said there are 24 million reasons to do so. Hard to argue with that logic. Which leads to the next question: Will the Bulls buy him out? Or, more likely, when will the Bulls buy him out?

Carmelo Anthony could be in the same boat. Phil Jackson wants to trade him but Anthony has a no-trade clause. The number of teams willing to give up anything for ‘Melo where he would waive that clause is very, very limited. You might be able to count them on one finger. And that might be generous. So a buyout could be in order.

Which leads to this interesting note from Brian Windhorst, via Marc Stein, of ESPN.

This makes sense for the Cavaliers. They need roster upgrades and they are capped out. They tried to find a deal to move Kevin Love to get space to chase Jimmy Butler or Paul George, but those three team deals never came together in part because of a lack of trade value for Kevin Love. Adding either or both of these two players to the roster for minimum salaries while giving up nothing is a perfect scenario.

Wade, obviously, has played with LeBron. Even though he is not the player he once was, if his knees are rested he is capable of stretches of fantastic play that can help carry a team. He would be another offensive weapon in a deep arsenal of weapons the Cavaliers have stockpiled.

Anthony would be the same in some ways — he remains a strong scorer in isolation (sets the Cavaliers run more than any other team in the league) and he makes difficult shots. The problem would be elite teams — Golden State, Boston, etc. — could expose his defense against the pick-and-roll. Still, he would be an upgrade if nothing is surrendered for him.

There’s a lot of “what if” still to happen before we get to this. However, the idea of one or both of these guys being in Cavaliers uniforms by the start of next playoffs is not out of the question.

Alec Peters’ tearful reaction to being selected what NBA Draft should be about

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The NBA Draft production in Brooklyn is entertainment. It’s glitz. There’s stage with changing graphics. The NBA Commissioner comes out and announces the picks, then guys who have realized for a while now they would fulfill their dream of playing in the NBA come up on stage in their expensive suits, put on a baseball cap from their new team, shake the Commissioner’s hand, and next get interviewed on national television. It all feels rehearsed and staged, with very little feeling genuine.

I prefer how it went for former Valparaiso star Alec Peters better. He was in his hometown, with family and friends, unsure if his name would be called until just before it happened at spot 54 — and he still didn’t believe it until he heard it.

That is authentic.

The Suns are a good place to land for a young man wanting to develop and prove he belongs in the league. Peters is a 6’9″ power forward who shot 36.9 percent from three. Can he develop into a stretch four/pick-and-pop threat? He’s got a high IQ and will need to prove he can hang with NBA bigs, but he’s going to get his chance.

(Hat tip Ball Don’t Lie)