Sunday will mark Derrick Rose’s fifth Game 3 of his career. As it’s kind of a pivotal game, and considering he played like MVPoo last game (“Get it?Bbecause he’s the MVP! It’s a pun! A humorous play on words that isn’t actually humorous! Let’s move on.”), it’s pretty important that Rose show up against the Heat in Miami and help Chicago right the good ship “Thibodeau Doesn’t Actually Design Offense So It’s Pretty Much All On Rose, No Pressure.” So how has Rose performed in Game 3s in the past?
Rose has averaged 26.8 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.5 turnovers in the four Game 3s he’s played in. But as you can imagine with a sample size that low, there are outlier performances that drastically alter his averages.
So, yeah, that first playoff series vs. Boston, he did not have a stellar Game 3, and on the other end of the spectrum, his most recent Game 3 vs. Atlanta was the best playoff performance of his young career. Without the Boston game, his averages jump to 32.7 points per game, with 5.3 assists compared to just 2.3 turnovers. On the flip side, if you remove the Atlanta masterpiece, he averages just 21 points and 3.4 assist compared to 4.0 rebounds. In other words, before the Atlanta Game o’ Dominance, Rose hadn’t faired especially well in Game 3s, but if you look at his performance since Boston, Rose’s Game 3s have been stellar. I’m pretty sure this is what they’re talking about when they talk about lies, damn lies, and statistics.
What do Rose’s Game 3 performances tell us about Sunday? Basically nothing. He’s played James once and had his second best overall performance. Rose doesn’t seem to make an particular adjustments after two games, though the Indiana Game 3 should be discussed with consideration of the ankle injury he sustained. Rose’s performances are what you’d expect for a player of his skill and usage level. How he responds to the Heat is another matter altogether.
Of course, there is one more stat that should be mentioned here.
Rose is 3-1 all-time in Game 3s, and has not lost one since that unfortunate performance versus Boston in 2009.