Before the Miami Heat try to go out and prove that when pressured they do not always resort to isolation basketball, Tuesday night will be the NBA’s annual draft lottery.
It matters every year, this year for slightly different reasons than normal. Kyrie Irving of Duke is almost certain to go No. 1 overall, followed by Derrick Williams of Arizona. After that, things could really shake up depending on the draft order. There’s a feeling among some scouts that the difference between spot 8 and spot 20 is not that great this year, so you will likely see more of teams drafting for need rather than taking the best player.
This is no envelope in a jar system any more, David Stern is not grabbing frozen envelopes. There are 14 balls in a lottery machine, with the numbers 1-14 on them — that means there are 1,001 potential combinations that can come out (order does not matter), and 1,000 of those combinations are assigned to teams. Then the machine pulls out four balls and the team with that combination gets the first pick. That process is repeated two more times for the second and third picks, after that the draft goes in order of record from worst to first.
Here are the draft percentages:
1. Minnesota Timberwolves 25 percent chance of getting the top pick (they have 250 combinations)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers, 19.9 percent chance
3. Toronto Raptors, 15.6 percent chance
4. Washington, 11.9 percent chance
5. Sacramento Kings, 7.6 percent chance
6. Utah Jazz (from Nets), 7.5 percent chance
7. Detroit Pistons, 4.3% chance
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Clippers), 2.8 percent chance
9. Charlotte Bobcats, 1.7 percent chance
10. Milwaukee Bucks, 1.1 percent chance
11. Golden State Warriors, 0.8 percent chance
12. Utah Jazz, 0.7 percent chance
13. Phoenix Suns, 0.6 percent chance
14. Houston Rockets, 0.5% chance
The first reaction to hearing Jimmy Butler was traded to Minnesota on draft night was “the Bulls only got what back?”
The second reaction was “does Dwyane Wade still opt in?”
Yes, he does, and as he said there are 24 million reasons to do so. Hard to argue with that logic. Which leads to the next question: Will the Bulls buy him out? Or, more likely, when will the Bulls buy him out?
Carmelo Anthony could be in the same boat. Phil Jackson wants to trade him but Anthony has a no-trade clause. The number of teams willing to give up anything for ‘Melo where he would waive that clause is very, very limited. You might be able to count them on one finger. And that might be generous. So a buyout could be in order.
Which leads to this interesting note from Brian Windhorst, via Marc Stein, of ESPN.
This makes sense for the Cavaliers. They need roster upgrades and they are capped out. They tried to find a deal to move Kevin Love to get space to chase Jimmy Butler or Paul George, but those three team deals never came together in part because of a lack of trade value for Kevin Love. Adding either or both of these two players to the roster for minimum salaries while giving up nothing is a perfect scenario.
Wade, obviously, has played with LeBron. Even though he is not the player he once was, if his knees are rested he is capable of stretches of fantastic play that can help carry a team. He would be another offensive weapon in a deep arsenal of weapons the Cavaliers have stockpiled.
Anthony would be the same in some ways — he remains a strong scorer in isolation (sets the Cavaliers run more than any other team in the league) and he makes difficult shots. The problem would be elite teams — Golden State, Boston, etc. — could expose his defense against the pick-and-roll. Still, he would be an upgrade if nothing is surrendered for him.
There’s a lot of “what if” still to happen before we get to this. However, the idea of one or both of these guys being in Cavaliers uniforms by the start of next playoffs is not out of the question.
The NBA Draft production in Brooklyn is entertainment. It’s glitz. There’s stage with changing graphics. The NBA Commissioner comes out and announces the picks, then guys who have realized for a while now they would fulfill their dream of playing in the NBA come up on stage in their expensive suits, put on a baseball cap from their new team, shake the Commissioner’s hand, and next get interviewed on national television. It all feels rehearsed and staged, with very little feeling genuine.
I prefer how it went for former Valparaiso star Alec Peters better. He was in his hometown, with family and friends, unsure if his name would be called until just before it happened at spot 54 — and he still didn’t believe it until he heard it.
That is authentic.
The Suns are a good place to land for a young man wanting to develop and prove he belongs in the league. Peters is a 6’9″ power forward who shot 36.9 percent from three. Can he develop into a stretch four/pick-and-pop threat? He’s got a high IQ and will need to prove he can hang with NBA bigs, but he’s going to get his chance.
(Hat tip Ball Don’t Lie)
Just like with the Blake Griffin news earlier today, we expected this. Frankly, we kind of expected this back in 2013 when he signed his deal.
Chris Paul informed the Clippers on Friday he will be a free agent this summer, news broken by Brad Turner of the Los Angeles Times.
Technically, Paul had an early termination option and he informed the Clippers he would be exercising that (not opting out as Griffin did). That said, we’re talking about legal semantics here, what matters is CP3 will hit the open market this summer.
And a lot of teams want to talk to him: San Antonio, Houston, Denver, Miami. CP3 is going to meet with a lot of teams. But let me give you the 57 million reasons the Clippers are still the front-runners:
The Clippers can offer a five-year contract at about $205 million, every other team can offer four years at $152 million. As president of the players’ union while a new CBA was negotiated, he helped get the over-36 rule changed to the over-38 rule in part so he could get one more five-year contract, and he’s not going to take it?
Paul is competitive and the Clippers may not be, especially if Griffin leaves (unless Paul thinks he can help land LeBron James next summer). He has to look around at his options and see if a move gets him closer to a ring. Maybe there is an offer he finds tempting. But the longer he takes could leave the Clippers stuck and create a bottleneck in free agency. CP3 and Griffin (and Gordon Hayward) and going to determine how a lot of other things shake out this summer.
Jimmy Butler is about to be back with a coach he respects, one he sees as a person who helped groom him for success, on a team that is the biggest up-and-coming threat in the West. He’s good with where he landed.
Bulls fans are not so thrilled. After a year of rumors, Chicago got Zach LaVine coming off an ACL injury, Kris Dunn, and just drafted No. 7 Lauri Markkanen. That’s it. Well, not exactly, the Bulls gave Minnesota the No. 16 pick as well.
Bulls fans loved Butler, and Butler loved them, as he said on his Instagram saying goodbye to the city and fans.
Butler had fewer kind words for Bulls management. Here is what he told Joe Crowly of the Chicago Sun-Times.
“I guess being called the face of an organization isn’t as good as I thought. We all see where being the so-called face of the Chicago Bulls got me. So let me be just a player for the Timberwolves, man. That’s all I want to do. I just want to be winning games. Do what I can for my respective organization and let them realize what I’m trying to do…
“It’s crazy because there was me talking with guys about Cleveland, then all the outside rumors with Boston, Minnesota, Phoenix, then the feeling that I’m not going anywhere,’’ Butler said. “I mean I had so many people telling me what could possibly happen, but I just got to the point where I stopped paying attention to it.
“It’s crazy because it reminds you of what a business this is. You can’t get mad at anybody. I’m not mad, I’m not. I just don’t like the way some things were handled, but it’s OK.”
The long-running complaint of players about Bulls management was in evidence here — there is not communication. Or, what there is comes off as rose-colored visions of things, where what players want is honesty. All of that seems to be in play here.
Will Minnesota treat Butler better? Maybe, but also winning smooths over a lot of friction — and the Timberwolves are going to start winning. They look on paper (and early) like a playoff team in the West next season, one that can climb from there up to being one of the NBA’s elite teams. Karl-Anthony Towns is a top 20 NBA player now, Andrew Wiggins is good, and the team has quality role players everywhere.
A summer ago everyone just wanted the Bulls to choose a direction: Derrick Rose or Jimmy Butler? Who is your franchise leader? Turns out the answer is neither. Which is frustrating to Butler, but he landed in a good spot. Bulls fans on the other hand…