NBA draft lottery: Who needs to win this most?

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Your team isn’t in the NBA draft lottery unless it needs help (or you used to do trades with Isiah Thomas).

Everybody in it needs to win it. Especially this year, where the drop off from All-Star to “maybe he can be a rotation guy in a couple years” to “we’re hoping he can develop” is very quick and steep. The prize at the top is Kyrie Irving of Duke, and although you can debate if he is a future All-Star or superstar, the consensus is you’re getting a very good point guard. And if you’re in the lottery, you take him.

Who needs to win this most? Here are our five picks:

Minnesota Timberwolves (25 percent chance of getting top pick). Why they need to win the lottery: The Wolves won 17 games last season, so they need all the help they can get. They have one building block inside in Kevin Love and a couple decent wing players (Wesley Johnson, Martell Webster), but they need a Mr. Outside. In theory that would be Ricky Rubio, the guard they drafted from Spain two years ago, but despite what Timberwolves management says, there is no reason for him to come over. They win and draft Irving, and they can shop Rubio to fill another need. They won 17 games, so there are a lot of needs.

Cleveland Cavaliers (22.7 percent chance of getting top pick, via their own pick and the Clippers pick). Why they need to win the lottery: Their last top lottery pick left them, and they need another. The Cavaliers won 19 games with a sad roster that suffered a lot of injuries (frankly explaining cold fusion would be easier than explaining how Minnesota won fewer games than Cleveland). There is no position on the floor where they are set. They need stars and role players, as such they are wisely stockpiling draft picks. Irving would give them a guy to start building around. They have two lottery picks, so theoretically they could get the top two picks, and now we are taking about the rebuilding getting fast tracked. And, despite all of Dan Gilbert’s actions, they are owed a break by the basketball gods.

Toronto Raptors (15.6 percent chance of getting top pick). Why they need to win the lottery: Their best player left them and they need a star to replace him. This team won the lottery in 2006 and has Andrea Bargnani to show for it (Hey, it could have been worse, they could have drafted Adam Morrison.) Really, this team has a few pieces — DeMar DeRozan is a good athletic wing, Ed Davis was solid as a rookie, Jarryd Bayless is a quality guard, and even Bargnani can shoot. A top-flight point guard such as Irving ties this team together, and they get a lot better fast. Well, on offense. Until they start defending it’s all moot, but that’s another issue.

Detroit Pistons (4.3 percent chance of getting top pick). Why they need to win the lottery: Maybe this will convince them it’s time to blow it up and rebuild. The Pistons have lived in a limbo with roster that was begging to be broken up and rebuilt, but that couldn’t happen with an unsettled ownership situation. Throw in veteran players in virtual open mutiny against the coach and things got ugly. Right now Rodney Stuckey is the point guard of the future, but he is no Irving at the point. They have a good young center in Greg Monroe and Austin Daye can be a part of the future, but Irving and a new owner might lead to the rebuilding of this team that has been needed for more than a season.

Golden State Warriors (0.8 percent chance of getting top pick). Why they need to win the lottery: This is a long-suffering fan base that had an owner that really didn’t care, they deserve a break. This is a team with some pieces that is about to undergo a makeover and winning the lottery helps that along dramatically. New owner Joe Lacob — who will represent the team at the lottery — is looking to change this franchise into one that plays defense and not Don Nelson’s scatter ball. Sure, they already have two guards in Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, but they win the lottery and one of those (*cough* Curry *cough*) will be moved.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban details his two lottery-reform ideas

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NBA lottery reform passed 28-1-1 with the Thunder opposing and Mavericks abstaining.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wasn’t against changing the system. He just had his own ideas of how to do it.

Tim MacMahon of ESPN:

Cuban pitched other members of the league’s board of governors on a system in which the draft is abolished, with teams getting a pool of money to sign rookies based on their records.

“The team with the worst record gets the most money and the team with the best record gets the least money,” Cuban said. “It’s like a free agency. It makes it a lot harder to tank because you don’t know if you get the best players if you’re horrible all the time. “Nobody liked that at all, not a single person.”

Cuban’s other idea was to lock the team with the worst record into a draft slot — either third or fourth — to force teams to compete to avoid being at the bottom. That idea never got discussed in the board of directors meeting.

“Now all of the sudden, if it’s close at the end, you’re going to see teams play as hard as they can because if they end up with the worst record, they don’t get the best pick,” Cuban said, explaining the logic of his idea.”You basically eliminate them from getting the best player. Everybody else would just be the way it is now.

“Adam didn’t like that. That never got to the board of directors, but that one was my favorite. I brought up [the other proposal], but after that one got shot down, I didn’t bring up the other one. When I got no response on the one, I just dropped the other because it was obvious that what they had proposed was going to pass.”

Strange tactic to introduce the most radical plan first and then not propose a more moderate solution because the first idea gained no traction. It’s almost as if Cuban just wants to be a contrarian

Neither of Cuban’s plans would completely solve the issue, because both still incentivize losing.

In the first, worse teams would still get more money to spend on rookies. There’s also stronger incentive to tank when an established successful franchise is positioned to do so for a single year. Rookies won’t be scared off by an injury-plagued season that devolved into a horrific record. Armed with money to spend and banked credibility, those teams can swoop far down then vault right up.

It’s also important to remember the NBA isn’t simply 30 teams competing against each other. It’s also a single business competing against other forms of entertainment. It’s bad financially for the league to have markets that feel hopeless, even if they’re poorly managed. Giving bad teams a little extra money to spend on rookies might not be enough for them to land young players who instill hope.

In the second idea, teams would still jockey to be second-worst vs. third-worst, third-worst vs. fourth-worst, etc. – just as they do now. Bad teams would have to be more careful, but there’d still be plenty of late-season games where a team is clearly better off losing – the same games that create a perception problem now.

Are either of these plans better than the current system? Maybe. Rockets general manager Daryl Morey believes there’s still time to implement reform better than the just-passed measure.

I’m convinced the league will let several years play out under the new system before even considering an alternative – Cuban’s or otherwise.

GM Bob Myers: Steve Kerr can coach Warriors ‘as long as he wants’

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Rick Carlisle coached 13 seasons, including seven in Dallas, when the Mavericks stated he could coach them as long as he wanted.

Steve Kerr needed just three seasons with the Warriors.

Monte Poole of NBC Sports Bay Area:

Kerr has done an amazing job in Golden State, implementing a pace-setting offense predicated on movement and fine-tuning a quality defense.

It helps to have great players like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and eventually Kevin Durant. But Kerr has maximized them. He has also played a prominent role in establishing a productive culture throughout the entire organization.

Of course, health is the big catch. Kerr has missed significant time the last two years due to complications from back surgery. He’s looking forward to a long career, but those headaches and pains aren’t far in the rearview mirror.

Kerr clearly knows how to win with this super team, not necessarily as easy of a task as it appears. He has more than earned the right to stay on the bench for the Warriors’ next iteration, whenever that comes.

Hotshot coaches can fade quickly, but Kerr has established an unprecedented amount of goodwill so quickly. Hopefully, he stays healthy enough to take up Myers on his pledge.

Report: NBA not headed toward 1-16 playoff seeding

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NBA commissioner Adam Silver said the league would continue look at 1-16 playoff seeding.

Ken Berger of Bleacher Report:

Silver is well-intentioned on this issue, and open-minded, too—as he is on most agenda items that could, in theory, make the league better. But despite his willingness to discuss postseason reformatting, multiple people familiar with league discussions say it’s not anywhere near the top of the agenda.

After its analysis of the issue in ’15, the league concluded that, for a variety of reasons, it wasn’t sensible to change the playoff format. The two key factors, according to league sources, were 1) travel; and 2) a belief among league officials that conference imbalance was a temporary trend that would correct itself, as it typically has in the past.

For playoff qualification to truly be fair, teams would have to play a balanced schedule. As is, teams play teams in their own conference 52 times and teams from the other conference 30 times.

More 10 p.m. starts on the East Coast and 4 p.m. starts on the West Coast would hurt TV ratings.

Plus, as relative conference strength exists now and has existed for several years, 1-16 playoff seeding would make it harder for bigger Eastern Conference markets and easier for smaller Western Conference markets to qualify for the postseason.

Quality of competition matters, and there would be value in the NBA building a playoff field of its 16 best teams. But follow the money. There isn’t nearly enough urgency with this issue to overcome the direct financial setbacks reform would cause.

Draymond Green’s MRI comes back negative

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The Warriors can exhale. Their status as overwhelming championship favorites remains intact.

Draymond Green injured his knee in Golden State’s season-opening loss to the Rockets, but it appears he didn’t suffer major damage.

Monte Poole of NBC Sports Bay Area:

Even if Green misses a little time, the Warriors should be fine. They can cruise until playoffs – maybe even a round or two into the playoffs.

Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry are Golden State’s best players, but Green’s defense is so important, especially in small-ball lineups with him at center. The Warriors led Houston by 13 when Green left the game and then couldn’t get enough fourth-quarter stops in a one-point loss.

Golden State values rest and built a supporting cast around its stars to follow through. If Green misses tomorrow’s game against the Pelicans or any beyond, Jordan Bell, David West, Kevon Looney and Omri Casspi could all see bigger roles.