Do you want to know one key reason advanced statistics have found a foothold in the NBA front offices? Because they give you evidence to challenge your beliefs and understanding of the game. It can confirm or make you re-evaluate what you think you know. And a good GM is always questioning everything.
For example, when Joakim Noah left the Bulls to have thumb surgery, they were going to keep on scoring just fine with Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer. Where Noah would be missed is on defense. Right?
Zach Lowe at Sports Illustrated’s Point Forward blog looked at the numbers since Noah went down and found just the opposite.
Using Hoopdata.com’s points per possession metric (which differs slightly from the one I usually use — on Basketball-Reference), we see Chicago has scored just over 103 points per 100 possessions this season. That’s just about league average.
Since Noah was sidelined, Chicago has hit that mark just six times in 14 games despite an incredibly easy schedule, and they’ve come in at 102 points per 100 possessions or worse — the equivalent of a bottom-10 offense — in seven of those 14 games. Toss out one huge outlier — their 121-76 destruction of the Sixers last month — and the Bulls’ offensive numbers without Noah look even worse. Their defense, meanwhile, has shot to the top of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Why? Well, one reason is what you’d expect — the Bulls are not as good an offensive rebounding team with Noah. The fall off is not dramatic, but it is felt.
The other reason Lowe found is less obvious — the Bulls three-point shooting has gone missing. They are taking two fewer threes a game and are shooting just 30.5 percent since Noah went down. That could be just random coincidence (14 games is a small sample size so you can see big streaks like that) or it could be that having a big man who can roll to the rim opens up some better looks on the perimeter. Either way, it has hurt the Bulls scoring.
The Bulls will be without Noah for another month, maybe more. They need to find a way to get the offense working again.
The defense by the way? Never better.
A new Collective Bargaining Agreement is expected to be finished soon, but with months until the current deal expires, both the owners and players can afford to take their time and get the details right.
Both sides reportedly agreed to keep the age minimum – which requires players to be 19 and one year removed from their high school class’ graduation – in place.
David Aldridge of NBA.com:
Other issues, like the age limit for players entering the league, are still on the table. The league has long sought to increase the age limit from its current 19, and at least one year removed from one’s high school class, to at least 20 years of age. The union has talked about a “zero and two” setup, similar to that used by baseball — players can enter the Draft out of high school, but if they choose to go to college, they have to stay in college at least two years (in baseball, it’s three years) before declaring for the Draft.
The union wants to lower the age minimum. Adam Silver wants to raise it.
Most likely, the current one-and-done rule remains in place.
But a zero-or-two setup could be an interesting compromise. That would allow players certain they’re ready for the pros out of high school to declare for the NBA draft. In all other cases, Silver would get his wish.
Again, the status quo likely remains in tact. But it’s good both sides are discussing the issue to see whether there’s a better solution.
Take comfort, chairs and staffers.
The 76ers have raised Joel Embiid‘s minute limit from 24 to 28.
Jessica Camerato of CSN Philly:
This was never a hard limit. Embiid played more than 24 minutes in five of his 12 games with a high of 27 in an overtime contest. Presumably, the new “limit” will also allow for Embiid to sometimes it.
Embiid’s numbers per 36 minutes are eye-popping: 28.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 3.8 blocks and 6.4 turnovers. A small workload likely factors into his per-minute dominance, and he’s still a long way from typical starter minutes. But I’m interested to see how his production translates over a larger sample.
The 76ers, in their mission to be less bad this season, will also appreciate a few more minutes of Embiid. They defend like the NBA’s second-best defense with him on the floor and the league’s second-worst defense without him. They also score a little better with him. Overall, they get outscored by just 2.2 points per 100 possessions with him and a whopping 14.2 points per 100 possessions without him.
This could give Philadelphia a couple extra wins over the rest of the season. At minimum, it’ll make the 76ers more enjoyable to watch for a few more minutes each game.
Opponents shoot just 41.8% at the rim with Rudy Gobert defending it – which is now second to Hassan Whiteside among the 50 players who defend the most shots at the rim per game.
But James Johnson went up with no fear, scoring two of his 24 points in the Heat’s 111-110 win over the Jazz last night.
The Hornets didn’t just beat the Mavericks, 97-87, last night.
Nicolas Batum got Charlotte style points with this pass through Dwight Powell‘s legs, assisting Cody Zeller.