Outlining the damning problems of the Heat’s offense

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This season has gone pretty well for the Miami Heat, don’tcha think? They’re ranked seventh in the league in offensive efficiency, and sixth in the league in defensive efficiency. Aside from offensive rebounding rate, they rank in the top 13 teams in each of the offensive and defensive “four factors” (effective field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover rate, opponent’s turnover rate, free throw rate, opponent’s free throw rate, defensive rebounding rate). They have a winning record despite having an entirely new team, and when all else fails, they still have two of the most talented basketball players on the planet.

Things are sunny in Miami, I’d say, with the only exceptions being the team’s disturbing lack of interest and effort, the bizarre chemistry, Erik Spoelstra’s oddly hot seat, and the dreaded offensive inefficiency. That’s an odd thing to attribute to a top-ten offense, but it’s certainly fitting; LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, two of the most efficient high-usage players in the league a season ago, have seen their shooting and turnover numbers plummet.

Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus took a stab at explaining why:

Watching the Heat’s offense, something jumps out immediately. When both James and Wade are both in the game, they are almost never on the same side of the floor. Sometimes, that means both are waiting as Carlos Arroyo or another perimeter player handles the ball. More often, it translates into either James or Wade initiating the offense (typically out of a pick-and-roll) while the other spots up on the opposite wing.

For opposing defenses, this is essentially an ideal situation. Though James and Wade can still create problems by driving off a cross-court pass, their presence on the weak side usually limits them to serving as stand-still shooters at best and decoys at worst. Scouting reports around the league encourage defenders to force James and Wade to become outside shooters, neutralizing the danger they pose off the dribble, in the paint and at the rim. For a variety of reasons, Miami has managed to do exactly that to its own stars…

The other interesting culprit that Hoopdata.com points out is how much less effective James and Wade have been when they do reach the paint. Here, there does seem to be some evidence that the Heat’s poor bench is hurting the performance of its stars. James is making 68.9 percent of his attempts at the rim thus far. Previously, the worst mark Hoopdata.com has recorded for James (going back to 2006-07) is 71.0 percent. Wade has taken an even more significant tumble. He’s making 55.7 percent of his at-rim attempts, having previously shot no worse than 66.0 percent on these shots. That is a possible indicator that Wade is not right physically.

More striking than James’ and Wade’s shooting at the rim is their lack of assists to other players who finish at the rim. Last year, they combined 6.2 at-rim assists per game (essentially, passes leading to dunks or layups). This season, that mark has declined to 2.5 per game. Even granting that Wade is handing out far fewer assists (4.1 vs. 6.5) and that fewer shots have been marked as at the rim by Hoopdata.com this season, the two players are setting up their teammates for close finishes less frequently.

The first point Pelton hits is hopefully something that will be rectified in the coming games. Utilizing LeBron and Wade at the same time is partly why the Miami offense has such explosive potential, and yet instead Erik Spoelstra and his staff (or perhaps LeBron and Wade themselves) have elected to take turns running pick-and-rolls opposite one another on the floor. Running more 2-3 pick-and-rolls is a surefire way to involve Miami’s most versatile players in more plays together, and as such force opposing defenses to concede certain opportunities to either LeBron or Wade.

Pelton’s second contention is even more interesting, as there isn’t an obvious explanation as to why James and Wade are suddenly lesser finishers around the basket. I’m sure offensive stagnation is at least somewhat to blame, as the forays that both players take deep into the paint are a bit more wild than they’re used to. Still, both players are missing very reasonable attempts from around the basket that they’re accustomed to making, and much of that relies on James and Wade’s specific execution of the plays at hand. Something’s a bit off, and it’s not just the spacing.

Either way, Wade’s finishing ability is statistically akin to that of Yi Jianlian, Spencer Hawes, Channing Frye, and Joel Anthony this season, and that hurts. A lot.

Each star’s lack of assists leading to baskets at the rim can be chalked up to the same logic touched upon earlier. By separating James and Wade within the offense, the Heat are essentially taking away each distributor’s best finishing option. Chris Bosh is a decent alternative, but the rest of the Heat bigs (Udonis Haslem included) are relatively poor finishers around the cup, sandbagging both Miami’s offensive efficiency and the assist productivity of James and Wade.

These points don’t address all of Miami’s offensive problems, but they do cover the most glaring. Sure, it would be nice if the Heat had a more capable offensive center, or a more prolific scoring point guard. But most of the Heat’s struggles can be remedied given the proper utilization of the immense talent already on the roster.

Report: John Wall’s extension includes player option

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The Wizards had John Wall under contract for the next two seasons then signed him to a super-max extension that locks him in for an additional four three years.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

I’m a little surprised the Wizards gave Wall a player option considering their leverage.

Wall’s extension projects to pay him $169 million over four years – $30 million more than another team’s projected max offer over the same span. Even if Wall wanted to stay in Washington, this was the only offseason he could’ve ensured receiving the super-max rate. Had he rejected the extension now, he would have been eligible for the super max only by making an All-NBA team either of the next two years – far from guaranteed.

Still, the Wizards gave Wall everything – the highest-possible salary, max raises, a player option and a trade kicker.* There’s value in pleasing the franchise player. Wall will be the team’s third-highest-paid player for the next two years (behind Otto Porter and Bradley Beal), which might have bothered Wall if not for the super-max extension about to kick in. This deal makes locker-room harmony more likely.

But it also allows Wall to hit free agency in 2022 rather than 2023. Maybe that won’t matter. Wall’s salary option-year salary projects to be $47 million when he’s 32-years-old. I doubt Wall opts out then, though it’s certainly possible.

Effectively, if Wall is worth that much in 2022, he’ll be a free agent. If he’s not worth that much, Washington committed to pay him.

*The trade kicker is unlikely to to matter unless the salary cap unexpectedly increases significantly. It can’t lift Wall’s salary above 35% of the salary cap in the season he’s traded, and he’ll likely be at or above that mark throughout the extension anyway.

Basketball Hall of Famer John Kundla dies at 101

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MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — John Kundla, the Hall of Fame coach who led the Minneapolis Lakers to five NBA championships, died Sunday. He was 101.

Son Jim Kundla said his father died at an assisted living facility in Northeast Minneapolis that he has called home for years.

Kundla coached George Mikan and the Lakers in the 1940s and 1950s, helping them become the NBA’s first dynasty. He went 423-302 before retiring at the age of 42 and went on to coach his alma mater, the University of Minnesota.

Kundla was the oldest living Hall of Famer in any of the four major pro sports.

Kundla was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1995. A year later, he was named one of the league’s 10 greatest coaches as part of the league’s “NBA at 50” celebration.

 

Report: Magic signing Marreese Speights to one-year, minimum contract

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It’s a tough market for free-agent centers, as Marreese Speights learned the hard way.

Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today:

I wonder whether Speights regrets opting out with the Clippers, who were also slated to pay him a minimum salary. Not only is he stuck with a low-paying deal, he’s on a worse team and one with center depth.

Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo should play only center, where Speights is best. Speights can also play power forward, but Aaron Gordon should get all his minutes there. Maybe Jonathan Isaac should, too, though it’s more tolerable to play him at small forward while the rookie adjusts to the NBA.

Simply, there won’t be much playing time for Speights unless Orlando makes a trade (maybe this is a harbinger) or plays too big of lineups (a lesson it should have learned last season).

Likewise, the Clippers will be fine, though less versatile, without Speights. The acquired Willie Reed (free agency) and Montrezl Harrell (Chris Paul trade) to play behind DeAndre Jordan.

Speights clearly isn’t essential, but he has expanded his range beyond the 3-point arc. He defends with effort, though not necessarily well. There’s a place in the league for stretch fives like him. But he turns 30 in a couple weeks, and his stock is clearly low. At least he’ll have a chance for a bigger payday next summer.

Kristaps Porzingis on Knicks: “This is where I want to stay… this is where I want to win”

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There were multiple, connected reasons it was time for the Knicks to move on from the Phil Jackson era — a triangle of reasons, really — but this one should have been at the top of the list:

He was alienating Krisptaps Porzingis.

We don’t know yet if Porzingis can be a franchise NBA player, however, he shows the potential to do it. He could become a top five NBA player you can build a contender around. You endear yourselves to those kinds of players, not get into power struggles that lead to said player blowing off end-of-year meetings and being guided out the door.

With Jackson gone, Porzingis has more motivation to stay a Knick and be the guy that turns the franchise’s fortunes around. KP was running a youth hoops camp in his native Latvia and was taking questions from the children when one kid got in a question the New York media would have loved to ask: Are you going to abandon New York? Here is Porzingis’ answer, translated and obtained by the New York Post.

“I feel that it is the best place to win. And if you win in New York, you are king. For the last two years, I have had so many positive emotions here that this is where I want to stay and that this is where I want to win.”

The Knicks have their cornerstone big. Now they need a guy on the outside (Kyrie Irving will get mentioned, but he is not the only answer), they need to get and develop young players to go with their stars. It’s the next phase for the Knicks.

But if they can keep Porzingis happy, they can lock him up to a max rookie extension after next year and have that piece in place. Then it’s up to Steve Mills and Scott Perry to put the pieces around him.