Maybe it’s a little too early to freak out about a lockout

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Welcome to the world of my contradictions. Put up your feet, make yourself at home.

On one hand, I am fully convinced there will be an NBA lockout come next July 1. Talk to both sides informally and that feels like the only possible outcome.

But I think that Darren Rovell at CNBC is right as well — it is far too early to read much into what either side is saying about the negotiations.

You see, history shows us in labor negotiations both in sports and the real world, that true negotiating doesn’t begin until at least one side feels pressured by a deadline. With so much time left, there’s no reason for either side to buckle. An artificial deadline of making substantive progress by the All-Star Break in February has been set, that deadline is exactly what it’s called — “artificial.”

Until a group of workers stare unemployment in the face and an owner or a company truly contemplates not being able to sell his product or service, there’s no reason to step forward and make a deal. The new terms wouldn’t start until the current deal expires and who knows what will change between now and then.

Perhaps the owners, coming off $170 million in new season ticket sales, realize by June that the financial system needs to be tweaked less. Perhaps the union, which has been presented with some $350 million in audited losses from the owners last year, realizes by May that the ultimate driver of casual fan interest — the Miami Heat — isn’t even going to make it to the NBA Finals and the buzz they were counting on just won’t be there. It’s very possible that conditions over the next couple months can change that lead to greater compromise. But there’s simply no reason for either side to be close now.

Let me reiterate one other point as well: A two-day or even two-month lockout that starts July 1 really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme. We fans who love to play GM every July will lose out on some fun (or have it postponed really), those of us who find Summer League in Vegas one of the joys of the NBA calendar will be disappointed. But so long as training camps open on time and games start on schedule, the casual sports fan will not notice. We die hards will forgive. Nothing of real substance to the NBA would be lost.

So that deadline of pressure Rovell speaks of comes with July 1, but really only starts to build over the summer. Which means that I can say that there will be a lockout this July, but anything being said by Billy Hunter or David Stern right now borders on meaningless.

Shabazz Muhammad awkwardly mentions Collective Bargaining Agreement during halftime interview (video)

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The Timberwolves surprisingly led the Spurs by nine at halftime last night, which takes us to Shabazz Muhammad‘s mid-game interview.

Muhammad:

We’re doing a great job on defense, Wiggs, myself, everybody. It’s a tough team, especially Kawhi and the guys. So, we’re doing a really good job and everybody’s collective – Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Um. What?

To be fair, I can’t even imagine what type of nonsense I’d spew in the midst of a taxing workout or a high-pressure situation – let alone something that qualifies as both.

Unfortunately for Muhammad, Minnesota eventually fell to San Antonio, 100-93. But hopefully, he can laugh at this moment. He should, at least.

hat tip: reddit user cjsplash

Duke’s Jayson Tatum, California’s Ivan Rabb declare for NBA draft

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Wednesday a couple of forwards expected to go in the first round of June’s NBA draft said they plan on making the jump to the NBA.

As expected, Duke’s Jayson Tatum and Cal’s Ivan Rabb made their decisions official.

Duke announced Tatum’s decision.

Tatum is expected to be a top-five pick, DraftExpress.com currently has him as the No. 4 pick. The 6’8″ wing can flat-out score the rock, which is why teams are intrigued, as Rob Dauster of NBC’s College Basketball Talk told us in a recent podcast. However, teams wonder if he can create shots for others and not just himself, and if he’s going to be a good defender at the NBA level. He has the physical tools to do be a good defender, but will he put in the work game in, game out?

Rabb is a 6’10” sophomore who has a great NBA build and athleticism to spare, but at the NBA level everyone is a great athlete. Rabb doesn’t have a great perimeter game and needs to develop one and be a consistent defensive force to be a difference maker (or have a lengthy career) at the NBA level. DraftExpress.com has him going 22nd in this draft, and his stock seems to have fallen over the course of the season.

PBT Extra: What coaches are on hot seat? Alvin Gentry at front of list.

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This season, for the first time in 46 years, no NBA coach will be fired during the season (nobody is getting canned at this point).

However, once the off-season starts, there will be a few changes.

Alvin Gentry in New Orleans and Fred Hoiberg in Chicago are the names most mentioned, but there will be an unexpected firing somewhere around the league. Some GMs are on the hot seat also (Rob Hennigan in Orlando leads that parade).

I get into all of it in this latest PBT Extra.

Raptors’ Serge Ibaka, Bulls’ Robin Lopez each suspended one game for thrown punches

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It was obvious this was coming. Get in a shoving match “fight” in the NBA and you get a fine. However, actually throw punches and…

Toronto’s Serge Ibaka and Chicago’s Robin Lopez each have been suspended for one game by the NBA “for throwing punches at one another during an altercation,” the league announced. What that works out to is a $120,715 hit for Lopez and a $111,364 ding for Ibaka.

Also, Raptors assistant coach Jamaal Magloire earned a $15,000 fine shoving the Bulls Nikola Mirotic and “acting as other than a peacemaker as part of the same altercation.”

This all came out of what seemed a rather innocuous play. Ibaka and Lopez were battling for rebounding positioning, it went on for a second after the ball went through the hoop, Ibaka caught Lopez with a little chicken wing elbow in the back, Lopez spun, and, boy, that escalated quickly. Lopez’s punch missed, while Ibaka’s caught Lopez in the hair more than the body.

Both men got technicals and were ejected.