Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets

The tasty underside of the Rockets’ defense so far

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The Houston Rockets are 0-5, which is just bizarre. They’ve fought hard against good teams and been in positions to win, only to find new and inventive ways to lose. This is a team that many consider one of the most fun teams to watch, and a legitimate playoff contender. So what in Olajuwon’s name is going on down there?

Looking at the numbers, we try and identify where the problem is. We see the offense is ranked 14th in efficiency. They’re shooting 53% from the field, right in the middle of the pack. They’re only turning the ball over on 13.1% of their possessions ( 8th lowest in the league). They’re eleventh in offensive rebounding rate. The offense is looking good. So what’s the… oh. Right.

The defense.

Houston currently has the worst defense in the league, when factoring for pace. They force a turnover on less than 10% of all their opponents’ possessions, league worst. But surprisingly, they’re fourteenth in FG%. They’re not getting killed by shots, but they are letting their opponents get to the line 36% of the time.

Okay, so we’ve isolated the defense as the issue. Now, we need to go deeper. (Braaaahm.)

Looking at their opponent field goal percentages, they’re bad but not horrific down low, giving up the tenth best FG% at the rim. They’re 8th worst on the perimeter, but the big one is 10-15 feet, where they’re fourth worst. So where are all those shots coming from? For that we turn to Synergy Sports.

According to Synergy Sports, the Rockets are weakest in pick and roll defense on the ball handler, posting a .90 points per possession mark and allowing opponents to shoot 49%. That’s long form for “guys are coming behind the screen and nailing jumpers. Aaron Brooks and Courtney Lee are the biggest offenders, allowing a 1.31 and 1.30 PPP respectively. Brooks’ allowed field goal percentage is better, but he’s also fouling 18% of the time. So what’s happening on these pick and rolls? Here’s a look.

Here Chris Paul brings the ball up the floor and gets ready to go behind the deep wing pick.

 

Paul peels Brooks one way and the back the other, using the discernible lack of size to pancake his defender.

 

 

As CP3 peels around and gets to the baseline, Yao moves to cut him off. Brooks is taking a bad angle here, moving laterally instead of moving to anticipate Paul getting to the baseline. This could be because he’s expecting Yao to close off the baseline. He does not, and CP3 is now roaming free under the basket. If you were wondering if it’s time to panic, it is.

Brooks catches up with him, but now you’ve got Paul against an opponent who’s actually smaller than him (one of the few). The result? A turnaround fadeaway that Paul can make in his sleep from less than five feet.

It’s good, Hornets take the lead and hold on to win.

Now, Brooks isn’t the only problem, neither is Martin. In reality, the problems for the Rockets are system. Take this play for example from last night, where the Rockets actually defended the pick and roll pretty well, except when Manu Ginobili was draining step-back J’s and Richard Jefferson was getting wide-open looks.

 

Here Jefferson  gets the ball on the wing and pulls his man into a Blair pick. Which is kind of like pulling him into a brick wall with spikes on it.

The problem here is a lack of recognition by Jordan Hill to show hard off the pick to deter Jefferson. Given your choice of DeJuan Blair pick and pop, and Jefferson free and clear, you take Blair every single time.

That clump there should not exist, because now you have other defenders having to watch both their man and figure out if they need to commit to Jefferson.

The two defenders are still hung up on the pick, leaving a wide-open jumper for Jefferson who stops mid-range.

But worst was probably this possession against the Spurs, in overtime, after the Rockets had worked so hard to get themselves in good position to win. Up one, Parker gets the ball on the wing.

Here comes the pick. Again.

Again, the Rockets are too shallow off the pick. Look at how open that left elbow area is. You can tell your man to fight through the screen, as long as you’ve got rotation help. But Luis Scola needs to stick with his guy and can’t get there. Which means…

Ishmael Smith tries to cut off Parker going over the screen, but can’t get there, because Parker is really fast. Again, this would be the time to freak out.

Wide open J. Money.

The Rockets are far from finished (they tip-off against the woeful Timberwolves in a few minutes after this post). But the problems they have are pretty clear. They’re a fast paced team that can put up some offense but can’t get stops. Which is bizarre for a team with such great depth in the frontcourt. We’ll have to see if these problems become an epidemic or if this is just an early season outbreak.

College coaches vote UConn’s Kevin Ollie best-suited/most likely to make NBA jump

DES MOINES, IA - MARCH 17:  head coach Kevin Ollie of the Connecticut Huskies reacts on the sideline in the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes during the first round of the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Wells Fargo Arena on March 17, 2016 in Des Moines, Iowa.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Kevin Ollie made himself one of the NBA’s hottest coaching prospects by leading UConn to the 2014 NCAA title.

He has since resisted NBA overtures, including from the Lakers in 2014 and Thunder last year.

But his peers don’t expect Ollie’s hesitance to last.

Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander of CBSSPorts.com asked more than 110 college coaches, “Which active college coach is best suited and most likely to next jump to the NBA?” The results:

Coach, college Percentage

Kevin Ollie, UConn 20 percent

Bill Self, Kansas 17 percent

John Calipari, Kentucky 16 percent

Jay Wright, Villanova 16 percent

Shaka Smart, Texas 9 percent

Tony Bennett, Virginia 8 percent

Note: Other coaches who received at least three or more votes: Sean Miller (Arizona), Larry Krystkowiak (Utah) and Avery Johnson (Alabama).

Keep in mind 80% of responds didn’t answer Ollie. But he’s still makes sense atop the leaderboard.

Ollie isn’t the typical college-to-NBA coach, and Brad Stevens and Billy Donovan – and maybe eventually Fred Hoiberg – are changing that perception, anyway. Not is Ollie showing his basketball acumen at Connecticut, his 13-year NBA career suggests he can translate his style to the next level.

Of course, Calipari always comes up on these lists. He coaches more future NBA stars than anyone, and he loves the attention that comes with the perception NBA teams are chasing him. But he has the best job in college basketball at Kentucky, so luring him will be difficult.

Self and Wright, the other coaches who got at least 10% of the vote, come up from time to time in NBA rumors. But it never seems to be anything that goes anywhere.

Hornets’ Frank Kaminsky: I was ‘overwhelmed’ at times defensively last year

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 31: Brandon Bass #2 of the Los Angeles Lakers blocks a layup by Frank Kaminsky #44 of the Charlotte Hornets during the second half of the basketball game at Staples Center January 31, 2016, in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using the photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
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Frank Kaminsky ranked 119th of 165 big men in ESPN’s real plus-minus last season.

The eye test matched.

Kaminsky isn’t strong enough to defend inside, and he’s not mobile enough to defend the perimeter.

The assessment might sound harsh, but coming off his rookie season, Kaminsky put it just as bluntly.

Kaminsky, via Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer:

“I’ve got to be a better overall defender. I was overwhelmed at times,” Kaminsky said. “My preparation, obviously, needs to get better. I so want to be a more consistent player. I’d have a good game and then disappear in the next.”

Kaminsky competes defensively, and Hornets coach Steve Clifford can work with that. Despite his shortcomings, Charlotte still allowed fewer points per possession with Kaminsky on the floor than off. That had plenty to do with whom Kaminsky shared the floor, but it’s evidence his defense is already at least tolerable.

As Kaminsky acclimates to the NBA, his defense could improve. He’ll never be a great leaper, and his length is pedestrian for his position. But he moves alright and plays hard. Add better defensive recognition, and he could be fine.

Every 8-24 will be Kobe Bryant Day

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 13:  Kobe Bryant #24 of the Los Angeles Lakers waves to the crowd as he is taken out of the game after scoring 60 points against the Utah Jazz at Staples Center on April 13, 2016 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
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Los Angeles announced today, August 24, 2016 would be Kobe Bryant Day – presumably because he wore Nos. 8 and 24 with the Lakers, not because 8-24 feels like a common shooting night for him.

But that press release understated the honor.

Ramona Shelburne of ESPN:

Kobe had a great career, and he’s beloved in Los Angeles. Honoring him with a day is a nice gesture.

But as the luster of his retirement tour dims, this will seem overreaching if it’s not just forgotten. The latter is far more likely, but when it’s remembered, Kobe Bryant Day will mostly lead to questions: Why not an annual Magic Johnson Day? Why not an annual Sandy Koufax Day? Why not an annual…

Report: Raptors signing E.J. Singler

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 29:  E.J. Singler #25 of the Oregon Ducks drives in the second half against Chane Behanan #21 of the Louisville Cardinals during the Midwest Region Semifinal round of the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium on March 29, 2013 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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Ready for another Singler in the NBA?

Thunder forward Kyle Singler‘s brother, E.J. Singler, is headed to the Raptors.

Blake Murphy of Raptors Republic:

Toronto as 14 players – one shy of the regular-season roster limit – with guaranteed salaries. Singler will join Fred VanVleet, Jarrod Uthoff, Yanick Moreira and Drew Crawford in a crowded race for the 15th spot.

VanVleet has a leg up, because third-string point guard Delon Wright will miss the start of the season. I also like Uthoff more as a long-term prospect in a vacuum than the other players.

Singler’s advantage? His experience. He’s older than his four competitors, including VanVleet and and Uthoff, who went undrafted out of Wichita State and Iowa this year.

Singler went undrafted out of Oregon in 2013. He has since played overseas and in the D-League, including with the Raptors’ affiliate last season. The 6-foot-6 forward has a nice shooting stroke, but his subpar athleticism limits him all around.

I expect Singler to get a partial guarantee designed to entice to stay in the D-League, where the Raptors 905 still hold his rights, rather than go overseas if he doesn’t make Toronto’s regular-season roster. But first, he’ll have a chance to earn an NBA roster spot in what appears to be a fairly open race.