Heat_defense

Miami is a defensive juggernaut. But will it last?

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Right now, the Miami Heat are the best defensive team in basketball.

Yes, we know — you have to be careful about what kind of conclusions you draw from a team three games into a season. Small sample size alert. And it also depends on how you count the numbers — Basketball-Reference has them the best at 90.3 points per possession, Hoopdata has them seventh at 92.7.

But nobody who watched the second half of last night’s Miami blowout would argue that the Heat are a defensive power — Orlando shot 7 for 36 in the second half, and Miami converted those misses into transition points. And Miami — with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James — are to be feared in transition.

The question is, can Miami keep it up? The deeper stats at Hoopdata have some conflicting answers.

The Heat are aggressive defensively. Right now the Heat are making defensive plays — getting the steal, blocking the shot, taking the charge. Miami’s defensive play rate of 19.1 per 100 shows the Heat aggression — they are getting the steal or the block basically one-in-five times down the court. That is fourth best in the league.

That translates to fast break points the other way. And remember what we said about the Heat in transition.

The Heat can and almost certainly will keep up this aggressive play. They pride themselves on being aggressive.

But there are other numbers that raise doubts about if they can sustain this level of success.

Right now Miami is letting teams get to the rim — 25.5 shots per game that are layups or dunks, which is ninth most in the league. However, when teams get there they are shooting just 54.9 percent at the rim, fifth lowest percentage in the league.

Usually, teams with big front lines are ones that can both keep teams from shooting at the rim and keep them shooting a low percentage when they get there (teams keeping opponents to a lower shooting percentage at the rim than Miami include the Lakers, Nets and Nuggets, which are long front lines).

It is unlikely Miami keeps those numbers up. Either they will start to keep people away from the rim or teams will start to finish better. And score more points, and limit those fast break opportunities.

By the same count, Miami is forcing teams to take only 15.5 long two-pointers per game, shots from 16 feet out to the arc that are the least efficient in basketball. The Heat are sixth worst in the league right now in that category. It’s hard to be an efficient defense if you don’t force teams into inefficient shots.

But three games in, the Heat are that. We will see if it lasts.

PBT Podcast: Derek Fisher fired, plus your trade questions from Twitter

Derek Fisher
Associated Press
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Derek Fisher is out as coach of the New York Knicks.

In this latest podcast, NBC Sports’ Kurt Helin and Dan Feldman discuss the odd timing of that move — we expect another shoe to drop as to why. It’s not that Fisher was a great coach, but replacing him with Kurt Rambis mid-season is not an upgrade. And Luke Walton isn’t available until this summer.

After struggling to figure out what the Knicks are thinking, Helin and Feldman answer questions off Twitter from readers/listeners on the coming trade deadline including discussions of Blake Griffin, Jeff Teague, the Pistons, the Jazz, the Knicks, and more.

As always, you can listen to the podcast below, or listen and subscribe via iTunesdownload it directly here, or you can check out our new PBT Podcast homepage, which has the most recent episodes available. If you have the Stitcher app, you can listen there as well.

Warriors’ center Festus Ezeli to have knee surgery, out indefinitely

Golden State Warriors center Festus Ezeli, left, of Nigeria, looks to pass the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Darrell Arthur defends during the second half of an NBA basketball game Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015, in Denver. Golden State won 118-105. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Associated Press
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Festus Ezeli has been a rock-solid backup for the Warriors this season, playing almost 18 minutes a night behind Andrew Bogut giving the team 7.5 points and 5.9 rebounds a contest. Golden State’s defense is 3.6 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court, and he’s part of the team’s long-term plans.

But he’s going to be out for a while now following knee surgery, the team announced and as reported by Monte Poole at CSNBayArea.com.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/warriors/festus-ezeli-undergo-knee-surgery

The surgery is exploratory, which is why the Warriors say there is no timeline for recovery yet.

The surgery is on his left knee; it was his right one that had reconstructive surgery and forced him to miss all of two seasons ago.

This is a blow to the Warriors’ depth, but little has slowed their march this season. More Mo Speights is not ideal, but the Warriors can just go small more often and run teams out of the building that way.

Ezeli is a restricted free agent this summer and the Warriors would like to keep him on the roster and expand his role, particularly if they do not retain Andrew Bogut. The severity of this knee injury could impact Ezeli’s ability to earn a big contract this summer, but hopefully for him, it’s not that serious.

Russell Westbrook stands behind Kevin Durant, mimics him during interview (video)

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook, right, gestures after scoring as forward Kevin Durant stands by during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Friday, Jan. 8, 2016, in Los Angeles. The Thunder won 117-113. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
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Choose your spin.

This is why Kevin Durant is leaving the Thunder. Russell Westbrook doesn’t respect him.

or

This is why Kevin Durant is re-signing with the Thunder. He and Russell Westbrook have so much fun together.

Report: Magic open to talking Tobias Harris trade, looking to add experience

Memphis Grizzlies guard Tony Allen (9) grabs the uniform of Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Monday, Jan. 25, 2016, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Brandon Dill)
AP Photo/Brandon Dill
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Tobias Harris signed a four-year, $64 million contract with the Magic just last summer.

Now, just 50 games later…

Marc Stein of ESPN:

I’m skeptical this is significant. Teams discuss trades for many players for a variety of reasons. That doesn’t mean the player is likely to be dealt.

Orlando in particular has a roster of players who cause significant debate about their value. It’s helpful to know what other teams think of Harris, and soliciting trade offers is a good method to learn his worth.

It’s more intriguing the Magic are looking to add experience. They should probably go the opposite route, but they’ve tried (and failed) for years to accelerate their rebuild. At 22-28 – four games and three teams from playoff position – now is not the time to seek shortcuts. Spend the rest of the season developing young players – and probably securing a higher draft pick in the process.

One of Harris’ best traits is his youth. He’s just 23. See what other teams would offer for him, sure. But, in all likelihood, it’s better to let him grow into the veteran Orlando needs rather than trading him for one when the rest of the team isn’t ready to win, anyway.

My guess is that’s what Orlando will do. Remember, always consider who has incentive to leak this information anonymously and what they’d be positioned to know.