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Sports economists say NBA financially healthy, aren’t buying owners claims

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NBA owners are crying poverty — the system needs to change because right now the NBA is bad business. One new owner, Washington’s Ted Leonsis, talked of a hard cap. Then was promptly fined by David Stern for talking out of school.

Two prominent sports economists interviewed by the Boston Globe
said not to believe everything you hear from the owners or players right now. (Found via TrueHoop.) They are negotiating through the media.

They add that the league is basically healthy, so a lockout would do far more damage than good.

“I think the NBA is reasonably healthy,’’ said [Stanford economics professor and author Roger] Noll. “If you extract the fact that it’s the worst recession in the lifetime of anybody who’s thinking about it, the league is healthy. I do not anticipate there will be a strike or lockout. I do not anticipate the next agreement will differ materially from the present agreement.

“Both sides blow smoke in the run-up to collective bargaining. But you shouldn’t pay any attention to what they say. They are jockeying for position and trying to put pressure on the other side through the media. Nothing they say now about the state of the league or the state of the collective bargaining negotiations has any particular truth value.’’

Noll’s solution is somewhat radical — put a cap on team salaries if you want, but let go of (or dramatically relax) what an individual player can make. Put simply, if LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh could each command $30 million a year there is no way they could team up, allowing a more balanced spread of talent. In this scenario, the top players would make more but many “middle class” players would take a pay cut as the disparity would grow.

He also says revenue sharing needs to increase if the owners want parity.

“The NBA has relatively small revenue sharing in comparison to football and baseball, and so the financial disparity between the top teams and the bottom teams is not as bad as it is in hockey,’’ Noll said. “But it is a lot worse than it is in baseball and football, and one of the interesting features is that it gives the teams in the biggest cities a great deal of leverage over other members of the league.’’

The Globe also spoke with University of Michigan sports economics professor Rodney Fort, and he wasn’t buying what the owners were selling either.

“The argument somehow that owners are on the brink or anything of the kind is a little difficult to swallow, but that doesn’t mean they won’t posture themselves that way,’’ said Fort, who authored a 544-page textbook, “Sports Economics.’’ “But it doesn’t mean they won’t posture themselves that way to reduce the share of basketball-related income that’s going to players.

“They will argue that always, in any situation. Not because owners are going belly-up but because everybody likes more money than less.’’

Fort adds that whatever the owners’ motives, they benefit more from a lockout. Which means there will be one. Which sounds like what we have heard, where people on the owners’ side of the equation have been more adamant about a lockout when talking (off the record) than players, who just accept that it is coming.

“If there’s a lockout, the owners perceive that they are going to be in better shape when it’s over than they are right now,’’ Fort said. “And that’s going to be true, regardless.

“So if the owners feel like they can profit more from a new agreement by locking the players out for a year, you better believe that’s something they are considering.’’

Even if it kills the momentum the NBA as a whole is building right now.

Paul George ejected for arguing calls, Pacers go on to lose to Heat

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Paul George already had one technical in the game (from a double technical situation), when he thought he was fouled and should have gotten a call fairly early in the third quarter of a tight Pacers game against the Heat.

George apparently wouldn’t let up barking at the referees, maybe said some magical words, but whatever happened the officials hit him with a second technical. He was tossed. You can see the reaction above.

The Pacers hung close in the game until the Heat went on a 21-4 run to open the fourth and that was the ballgame. If you’re the undisputed leader of your team — as George is — you just can’t get tossed for things like this.

Warriors first team to clinch playoff slot with win over Nets

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OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) — Stephen Curry scored 27 points on a night Kevin Durant missed his first game of the season with a hand injury, and the Golden State Warriors beat the Brooklyn Nets 112-95 on Saturday to clinch a playoff berth.

Klay Thompson added 24 points. Curry converted a four-point play just before halftime to put his team up 62-51 at the break. The two-time reigning MVP had five 3-pointers and five assists.

This is just a first step for these star-studded, NBA-best Warriors (49-9): They want the No. 1 seed in the West. Oh, and a championship.

Durant sat out with a bruised left hand. He injured his pinkie in the first quarter of a 123-113 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday night, and X-rays were negative. He practiced Friday with his left hand heavily taped and still had some discomfort Saturday.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson scored 16 points in the Nets’ 16th straight defeat.

Nate Robinson goes through players’ legs to get out of double team in D-League

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Nate Robinson is trying to make an NBA comeback by starting in the D-League, playing for the Delaware 87ers, the affiliate of the Sixers.

They were going up against the Raptors’ affiliate when Robinson was trapped on the wing by a double-team — so he literally went between the legs of 7’3″ Walter Tavares and drove out of it. He got into the lane and was fouled.

If a pass between the legs is a nutmeg, what exactly is that?

This is my new favorite highlight of the year.

Carmelo Anthony’s jumper with 0.3 seconds left gives Knicks 110-109 win over 76ers

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NEW YORK (AP) — Carmelo Anthony made a jumper with 0.3 seconds left to give the New York Knicks a 110-109 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday night.

The Knicks blew a 17-point lead and fell behind by one when Jahlil Okafor scored with 9 seconds remaining. But Anthony dribbled left after a timeout, pulling up over Robert Covington to cap his 37-point performance.

The Knicks then intercepted the 76ers’ inbounds pass to hold on and snap their two-game losing streak.

Derrick Rose added 18 points and Justin Holiday had 14 for the Knicks, who won for just the third time in 11 games. They played without starters Kristaps Porzingis (sprained right ankle) and Joakim Noah (sore left hamstring).

Okafor had a season-high 28 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as the 76ers nearly pulled out the victory after beating Washington on Friday. Dario Saric had 19 points and 15 rebounds, and Covington finished with 20 points and 10 boards.

The Knicks avoided falling behind the 76ers into 13th place in the Eastern Conference, but they seem to realize it might be too late to get ahead of the teams they need to. They came in five games behind Detroit for the eighth and final playoff spot, and coach Jeff Hornacek before the game talked of players’ development as a goal instead of trying to make a playoff push.

Before the game, Philadelphia coach Brett Brown said his experience was that teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back usually started quickly before getting fatigued. But it was the Knicks was started fast thanks to Anthony, who was 7 for 10 for 17 points as New York led 31-25.

The Knicks led by 10 at halftime and Rose scored 10 in the third to keep Philadelphia from cutting into it. The Sixers were still down double digits well into the fourth quarter before Okafor and T.J. McConnell led them in what became a frantic finish.

TIP-INS

76ers: Philadelphia had won four of its previous five games. … The Sixers have dropped six straight at Madison Square Garden.

Knicks: Hornacek said Porzingis was considered day-to-day, with a possibility of returning in their next game Monday. But he said Noah would be out longer after having a setback in his recovery during the break. … Noah celebrated his 32nd birthday.

TWEETS

Knicks President of Basketball Operations Phil Jackson tweeted for just the fourth time this season on Saturday, wishing Tex Winter a happy 95th birthday. Winter was his former assistant coach and is considered the pioneer of the triangle offense. Jackson ended the tweet with a triangle emoji.

SPEAKING OF THE TRIANGLE

The Knicks have started running it more, according to Hornacek. He says it not only benefits the younger players on offense but also helps the Knicks be in better position to get back on defense. The Knicks ran the offense that Jackson used to win 11 championships as a coach under Derek Fisher and Kurt Rambis the previous two seasons, but Hornacek had opened up the offense this season to get the Knicks playing quicker.

UP NEXT

76ers: Host Golden State on Monday.

Knicks: Host Toronto on Monday. The Raptors have won the last five meetings.