Like we said, a coach will get canned before the calendar flips to 2011. But who’s the unlucky guy? Turns out Vegas has its own list of candidates.
The New Jersey Star-Ledger checked in with a gambling site called YouWager.com and looked at the list of prospective candidates to get canned. Essentially, if this is your first year with a club? Vegas is not confident you will survive. Here’s the list, courtesy of the Star-Ledger.
- Monty Williams 25% +300
- Byron Scott 33% +200
- Tom Thibodeau 17% +500
- Larry Drew 20% +400
- Vinny Del Negro 40% +150
- Avery Johnson 50% +100
- Other 90% -800
Monty Williams? Okay, sure, with CP3 possibly still on the fence about New Orleans’ future. Byron Scott? I have no argument with anything that results in something bad happening to Cleveland. Not that I want it, but you have to come to expect it, sadly, at this point. Tom Thibodeau is a weird one to pop up on this list, even as the worst odds. But given the money he was afforded, Chicago may get itchy if things go badly.
Larry Drew has too much talented, but given how much pressure is on the Hawks, with most people expecting them to fail, it’s not beyond belief.
Vinny Del Negro? Next.
Then there’s the leader, Avery Johnson. Avery is favored to lose his job by the site, despite a new ownership group and a new GM, in what is essentially another rebuilding year in which they have lots of tradeable assets. Maybe Vegas knows something about the Mad Russian we don’t.
This whole thing feels like buzzards circling a man walking through the desert.
When asked my prediction for the 2017 NBA champion, I say the Warriors have about a 50-50 chance. Some call that a copout answer – but it’s really not.
For a team to have even odds against 29 others combined entering the season is extraordinary.
Just how rare is it?
David Purdum of ESPN:
Jeff Sherman, head NBA oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, remembers the 1997-98 Bulls team, which was coming off a 72-win season, being around a minus-125 title favorite entering that season.
But Sherman and other sports betting industry veterans struggled to recall another team — in basketball, baseball or football — that was an odds-on favorite to start the season.
Michael Jordan, Dennis Rodman and Scottie Pippen led Chicago to the championship in 1998 (which was actually two seasons removed from the 72-win year).
Will Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson also meet their oversized expectations and deliver a title this year?
Flip a coin.
Tyus Jones has a lot to like — he’s a point guard who makes good decisions, his shot is developing (40 percent from three at Summer League), and he’s got skills. Minnesota won the Summer League championship because of Jones’ leadership — just drafted and highly touted Kris Dunn was out for the title game, that’s where Jones shined.
But Dunn is the future at the point in Minnesota, and Ricky Rubio is still there. So Minnesota is seeing what might be out there for Jones, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.
Minnesota has had talks with Philadelphia, New Orleans, and others about Jones for a while.
Jones is likely a steady backup point guard at the NBA level — he’s a smart passer, knows how to run a team, and as his shot develops he becomes more dangerous. His downside is defense, but as a reserve that’s less of an issue.
For a team like the Sixers — without Jerryd Bayless to start the season — or while New Orleans waits for Jrue Holiday‘s return, Jones makes some sense. The only question is the price going back to Minnesota.
The Bucks got a rude awakening about Greg Monroe‘s value when they tried to sell low on him this offseason – and still got no takers.
Now, Milwaukee seems to have gotten the picture. Monroe – whose agent claimed the center could name his contract terms from multiple teams last year – might opt into the final year of his deal, which would pay $17,884,176.
Zach Lowe of ESPN:
Milwaukee is already preparing for the possibility Monroe opts into his deal for 2017-18, league sources say.
The Bucks indicated this thinking when they extended Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s contract, putting a large 2017-18 salary rather than a relatively low cap hold on the books to begin next offseason. If Monroe opts in, the difference in Antetokounmpo’s initial cap number is far less likely to matter. (Though Antetokounmpo’s extension wasn’t a complete giveaway into Milwaukee’s Monroe expectation, because the Bucks saved over the life of the extension.)
Don’t put it past Monroe to opt out if he believes he can find a better situation. After all, he signed the small qualifying offer to leave a tough basketball fit with Andre Drummond in Detroit. Monroe also took the risk of a shorter detail in Milwaukee. He’s secure enough in himself to at least consider moving on if he’s unhappy.
It’s also possible he finds a satisfying role with the Bucks. They’ll bring him off the bench, which could hide his defensive shortcomings and give him a chance to mash backup bigs. Heck, he could even play well enough to justify opting out.
There’s still a full season before Monroe must decide on his option, and a lot can change by then. But it seems Milwaukee now has a realistic expectation.
The NBA is reportedly closing in on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the new deal will still call for owners and players to split Basketball Related Income about 50-50.
So, July’s projection of a $102 million salary cap in 2017-18 still carries weight – except it’s been updated.
Brian Windhorst of ESPN:
Why the change?
Perhaps, the shortfall adjustment – which increases the cap when teams don’t spend enough the previous year – is being revised in the new CBA.
More likely, the league anticipates more revenue. These projections tend to start conservative then rise as July nears.