Tim Donaghy continues to claim that he did not fix games



Tim Donaghy relayed inside information about the NBA to gamblers. He was involved in bets on games he was refereeing. He was sent to prison for 11 months because of what he did. Since he got out of jail, Donaghy has gone on the offensive. 
He published a book which claims that he was able to pick NBA games, against the spread, with a 70% success rate, thanks to his intimate understanding of the biases and tendencies of his fellow referees. He has repeatedly and fervently denied that he ever intentionally used his whistle to impact the game in a way that would benefit him and the bets he made on the games he was officiating. 
Recently, Donaghy has been using Deadspin.com as a platform to critique his former referee colleagues and continue to assert that the rest of the NBA are the crooked ones. (An example: “If we graded the [NBA Finals] broadcast according to how well it fulfilled Mr. Stern’s demands, I’d give ABC an A-plus.”)
On June 11th, Henry Abbott of TrueHoop, who has interviewed Donaghy and done lots of work regarding Donaghy’s attacks on the NBA before, published a piece calling Donaghy’s latest batch of claims into question and featuring an interview with Shawna Vercher, the former publisher of Donaghy’s book. 
Using his FaceBook page, Donaghy chose to respond to Abbott’s latest piece. He referred to it as “mean-spirited” and “factually incorrect.” He continues to claim that a “thorough” FBI investigation found that he did not fix games, and used that finding to call into question the work of Haralambos Voulgaris, a gambling expert who has analyzed footage of games Donaghy bet on and refereed and found some serious issues regarding the distribution of Donaghy’s calls. 
Mr. Voulgaris responded to Donaghy on the FaceBook thread, confronting him with data from games Donaghy has officiated. He then asked Donaghy to explain why, for example, he called 17 fouls against one team and 0 against the other in one game, and 26 fouls against one team and six against the other in a separate game. 
He also found some inaccuracies in one of Donaghy’s attacks on referee Derrick Stafford:
You write that the reason you bet NYK in the Feb 26 2007 game vs MIA was;
“Derrick Stafford had a close relationship with Knicks coach Isiah Thomas, and he despised Heat coach Pat Riley. I picked the Knicks without batting an eye and settled in for a roller-coaster ride on the court”
Later on you write about this same game;
“I worked a Knicks game in MSG with him on Feb 26, 2007. New York shot an astounding 39 free throws to Miami’s paltry eight. It seemed like Stafford was working for the Knicks, calling fouls on Miami like crazy. (page 109)”
Here are the actual details for that game (fouls + violations+infractions)
Derrick Stafford 16 total calls
9 calls favoring NYK
7 calls favoring MIA
Tim Donaghy 18 total calls
14 calls favoring NYK
4 Calls favoring MIA
Did you honestly believe you could write something so inaccurate in the hopes that nobody would actually attempt to verify your claims?

Donaghy responded to that by claiming that Voulgaris had been unsuccessfully searching for a job with the NBA for several years. That claim was quickly revealed to be untrue, and the accusation was then redacted by Donaghy. Donaghy then published his email address and invited Voulgaris to have a private conversation with him. He also looked at the first two plays of a detailed video breakdown Voulgaris had made of one of his officiating performances, defended the calls he made, and then said he “did not feel the need to continue.” There was also some discussion about the accuracy of Volugaris’ methods, all of which Voulgaris responded to.

At this point, I think it would be best to review the cases for and against the veracity of Donaghy’s post-prison claims, and the evidence supporting each viewpoint.
Donaghy’s Version of Events:

Tim Donaghy claims that he was able to pick NBA games correctly against the spread at an amazingly high rate because he knew how the league and his fellow referees influenced games in unseen ways. 
Some of the examples he gave were that Dick Bavetta liked to keep games close, that Steve Javie disliked Allen Iverson, that Joe Crawford loved Allen Iverson, and other things of that nature. Using detailed gambling databases, previous game footage, and months of painstaking research, Henry Abbott and Kevin Arnovitz of TrueHoop proved that if Donaghy had followed his “rules,” he would have ended up losing money. Some of the parties Donaghy claimed were involved in specific incidents during Donaghy’s time as a referee also deny that those incidents ever occurred.
Donaghy, despite the fact he was betting on games that he was officiating, was calling the games fairly; according to Donaghy’s version of events, the gambling addiction that ruined his life did not influence his calls the way Steve Javie’s dislike of Allen Iverson influenced his calls. After he was found guilty of betting on games, Donaghy decided to expose who the “real” bad guys were. 
Donaghy’s standard rebuttal to everyone who claims that he may have fixed games is that the FBI did a “thorough” investigation into him and found that he did not fix games. The FBI’s investigation mainly focused on money that was going to the Gambino crime family, and specifically abstains from saying that the FBI found that Donaghy did or did not fix games. The NBA’s own investigation into Donaghy, the Pedowitz Report, also refrained from making a conclusion on that front, saying that they did not look at many of Donaghy’s games, and even saying that they had found some questionable things in the games they did look at. 
I will also note that Donaghy has been attempting to encourage paranoia and promote conspiracy theories against multiple large entities since he returned from prison, most notably the NBA and ESPN, even when ESPN has shown its work at every opportunity. That he asks for the public to have complete and unwavering faith in an FBI report that nobody has seen and did not specifically say it found him innocent seems to reveal an inconsistency in Mr. Donaghy’s feelings about large entities. 
The Other Version of Events:

The other version of events is that Tim Donaghy is a gambling addict who got involved with the mafia, overestimated his own ability to handicap games (which, by the way, problem gamblers do), and ended up in over his head. He then began betting on games he was working and, consciously
or unconsciously, changed th
e outcome of the games in order to win his bets. 
When HBO’s Bryant Gumbel asked Donaghy’s former gambling partner if Donaghy fixed games, he gave a long, long pause before saying “no comment,” then basically said he didn’t want to know whether or not Donaghy was fixing games. 
Gumbel also said something at the end of that segment which I will now put in boldface and italicize: 
One Quick Postscript: According to Batista [the man who bankrolled Donaghy’s picks], Donaghy wasn’t much of a handicapper when he wasn’t directly involved. The games Donaghy picked but didn’t officiate? Batista ultimately said “Thanks, but no thanks,” after those picks lost him money.

Statistical research on the factors Donaghy said allowed him to pick games at 70% proved that betting those factors would not have won Donaghy money. Donaghy’s former gambling partner said that his picks on games he did not officiate lost him money. Yet Tim Donaghy made money the vast majority of the time on games he officiated. There is detailed statistical analysis, with accompanying video, showing that Donaghy had a tendency to call games in a ludicrously one-sided fashion. If found guilty of fixing games, Donaghy faces additional criminal charges to the ones he has already been convicted of. Given that information, how many possible conclusions are there?
Tim Donaghy is feeding on our insecurities. We’re sometimes so afraid of being seen as naive that we’ll believe any narrative other than the one presented to us by a “mainstream” entity, and often end up making ourselves cripplingly naive by doing so. But every now and then, Occam’s Razor works. The referee who bet on games, went to jail for betting on games, and is trying to make back the reparation money he owes for illegally betting on games is the one who isn’t on the up-and-up here, not the ones getting a desperate finger pointed at them. As of right now, Tim Donaghy is failing the duck test.
The men whose supposed biases have been statistically proven not to impact their work and do their best every day to correctly call a game that is nearly impossible to officiate perfectly are not the bad guys in this picture. There is likely not a vast NBA conspiracy that has placed the reputation and long-term survival of a multi-billion dollar industry in the hands of some of its most-maligned and worst-paid employees.
The amount of disrespect Tim Donaghy has shown to the game of basketball and the league that employed him is appalling. First, Donaghy bet on the game of basketball, the ultimate sports sin. That alone should have been enough to make Tim Donaghy’s name live in basketball infamy for as long as people talk about basketball.
Since his supposed rehabilitation Donaghy has, shockingly, made things worse. The 1919 White Sox admitted to their crimes when presented with the evidence. Pete Rose may have denied his guilt for decades, but at least he never tried to take anybody down with him. In response to the overwhelming evidence that he fixed games, Donaghy has decided that the best defense is a good offense. 
He has, in the most calculated and self-serving manner possible, tapped into long-standing anxieties that basketball fans have about the way the game is officiated and used that to deflect attention away from his own indiscretions. How badly you wanted the Kings to win in 2002 doesn’t make the evidence against Donaghy go away. If you want to talk about games like that, go to places like this. The man to lead the discussion about NBA officiating is not the ex-con ex-ref with some very murky motives behind his words. 
In order to prove himself innocent of a crime he likely committed, Donaghy has been willing to tarnish the reputations of his fellow referees. His ultimate goal is to destroy the credibility of the league that features the best basketball players on the planet. 
The truth — the unsexy, un-fun, conspiracy-free, actually true truth — of the matter is that the NBA and the people who work for it are doing everything they can to ensure that the games are called as fairly as possible. They are reviewing their referees. They are trying to find out which ones are the best. They are changing the rules to make the game more fair whenever they are given the opportunity. 
Plenty of people are working on this, and none of them have gone to jail because they bet on games. Until Tim Donaghy completes the substantial amount of work that must be done in order to clear his own name, it’s probably best to let other people worry about how to fix the league Donaghy did so much damage to. 
Tim Donaghy has said his piece.  Thanks to innovations like FaceBook, he will always be able to get his words to people who want to read them. He will continue to talk, and that’s his right as a free man. Until Donaghy can provide some real evidence for the unsubstantiated claims he’s made about others and against the very substantial claims made against him, it’s high time to stop listening.

Thunder waive Ronnie Price and Mitch McGary, keep Semaj Christon

2014 Oklahoma City Thunder Media Day
Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images
Leave a comment

The Thunder waived a former No. 21 pick who still had two years left on his rookie-scale contract and a 33-year-old journeyman.

The latter was the surprise.

Thunder release:

The Oklahoma City Thunder waived forwards Mitch McGary and Chris Wright along with guard Ronnie Price and center Kaleb Tarczewski, it was announced today by Executive Vice President and General Manager Sam Presti.

At this point, Oklahoma City waiving Mitch McGary was completely expected. Facing 15 games of drug suspension with no proven track record of NBA sustainability, McGary was an easy cut on a team with a roster crunch.

Price signed a fully guaranteed two-year contract worth nearly $5 million this offseason, and teams don’t generally waive players so soon after guaranteeing them multiple seasons (even if guaranteeing them multiple seasons was questionable in the first place). This opens the door not only for Semaj Christon to make the regular-season roster, but to serve as Russell Westbrook‘s primary backup at point guard with Cameron Payne injured.

Christon, the No. 55 pick in the 2014 draft, also signed this summer (with just a $200,000 guarantee). After leaving Xavier, he spent a year on the Thunder’s D-League affiliate then a year overseas. Perhaps, he’s ready for a regular role without the safety net of a veteran like Price behind him, but this sure seems like another case of Oklahoma City overrating its developmental system. See previously: Josh Huestis.

NBA Power Rankings Week 1: Warriors, Cavaliers top the list. Shocking.

OAKLAND, CA - OCTOBER 04:  Kevin Durant #35, Stephen Curry #30, and Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors stand on the court during their game against the Los Angeles Clippers during their preseason game at ORACLE Arena on October 4, 2016 in Oakland, California.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Getty Images
1 Comment

The NBA is back — and that means the ProBasketballTalk NBA Power Rankings are back. As always, we like to admit up front this entire process is moot — the NBA has a playoff to determine what team is best. What kind of ridiculous sport would use a ranking system to decide what teams get to play for a title? Here are the start of the season rankings, there is always a lot of volatility in these the first few weeks. Last seasons record is listed for this week only.

Warriors small icon 1. Warriors (73-9). About that slow start while they figure things out… this was the best team in the NBA in the preseason, outscoring teams by 13.5 points per 100 possessions (the trio of Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson shot 46 percent from three). Yes it’s just preseason, so it has all the meaning of an Adam Sandler film, but a soft first few weeks of the schedule makes it likely the Durant era starts off smoothly in the Bay Area.

Cavaliers small icon 2. Cavaliers (57-25). It’s a good time to be a Cleveland sports fan. Tuesday night the Cavaliers get their rings, the first title banner goes up in Cleveland in more than five decades — and then the Indians throw the first pitch in the World Series. I picked LeBron to win the MVP this season, but how much will he dial back the regular season to save himself for the playoffs, and how much will voters punish him for it?

Spurs small icon 3. Spurs (67-15). LaMarcus Aldridge denies the rumors, but the buzz he’s not thrilled blending in with the Spurs come from quality sources. True or not, there is no way the Spurs are trading him during the season — they just paid Pau Gasol and Manu Ginobili a lot of money to make anther run at a ring. Aldridge is key to that. Fall short of the conference finals again and next summer things get interesting.

Clippers small icon 4. Clippers (53-29). Are the Clippers better than the Spurs? Can they finally develop a real home court advantage? Blake Griffin says this is the healthiest he’s been in years and when he’s right he’s as good a power forward as there is in the league. He and Chris Paul can be free agents this summer, putting extra pressure on the Clippers to make this the year they break past the barrier of the second round, who knows if they get another shot with this group.

Celtics small icon 5. Celtics (48-34). Boston’s offensive spacing already looks better with Al Horford involved, and the hand-off play between Horford and Isaiah Thomas than often opens the Boston sets is hard to defend. The Celtics played at a high pace and guys were getting open looks all preseason, all of which are very good signs they hope to carry over to games that matter. They play three games in four days to open the season.

Raptors small icon 6. Raptors (56-26). Jared Sullinger is out for a big chunk of the season, but that’s not a massive setback for Toronto as it just means more Patrick Patterson (and likely more Norman Powell also). A healthy DeMarre Carroll is huge for this team (and he can play some four as well). They need to get some wins the first couple weeks of the season because the second half of November they are on the road a lot.

Jazz small icon 7. Jazz (40-42). Everyone’s favorite pick for a breakout season (including mine), but they are without Gordon Hayward, and that is a troubling setback. The signing of George Hill was chosen by NBA GMs as the most underrated move of the summer (in the GM survey), plus Utah snagged Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson. Those veterans and the defense should keep Utah afloat until Hayward returns in a few weeks.

Rockets small icon 8. Rockets (41-41). Who was the second best team in the preseason, outscoring opponents by more than 11 points per 100 possessions? You got it. They looked good because they scored 118 points per game and their defense was good enough (middle of the road statistically) to get them big wins. That Rockets’ defense — without Patrick Beverley due to knee surgery — will be tested early with a string of games good offensive teams from last season, plus a lot of road games.

Thunder small icon 9. Thunder (55-27). They are not going to be an offense built around subtlety and clever off-ball movement — this will be as straight ahead a team as there is in the league. Westbrook is going to put up monster numbers, and expect Steven Adams to come into his own this season. Will the Thunder get enough wins to vault Westbrook into serious MVP consideration?

Pacers small icon 10. Pacers (45-37). The additions of Jeff Teague at the point and Thaddeus Young on the wing, plus the continued growth of Myles Turner, should improve an offense that was 25th in the NBA last season but was sixth best this preseason. The question is how much defense was sacrificed to get that offense? Larry Bird wanted an offense that played faster, but they were 10th in the NBA in pace last season, how much faster can they go?

Hawks small icon 11. Hawks (48-38). Atlanta had the best defense in the NBA during the preseason, a promising sign for Hawks fans. The trademark ball movement that has defined Mike Budenholzer teams also was there, even with the addition of Dwight Howard and now Dennis Schroder running the point. If those two things can carry over to the regular season it’s a good sign. The Hawks have the softest schedule in the Eastern Conference the first month of the season, which gives them time to find their groove and rack up wins.

Blazers small icon 12. Trail Blazers (44-38). Damian Lillard is talking MVP, which is going to require a step forward by the entire team, not just him. Portland made some smart moves this offseason: matching the Allen Crabbe offer sheet, re-signing Meyers Leonard, picking up Festus Ezeli on a good contract. But they gambled big on Evan Turner as a third playmaker, that’s going to go a long way to determining if this team is better.

timberwolves small icon 13. Timberwolves (29-53). Everyone expects Minnesota to make a leap this season under new coach (and GM) Tom Thibodeau. The question is how big a leap are they ready to make? One very promising sign: Minnesota had the second-best defense in the NBA during the preseason. How well that translates to the regular season remains to be seen, but that was the side of the ball where they needed to make the biggest leap.

Grizzlies small icon 14. Grizzlies (42-40). Even more than most teams health is the key to the Memphis season, so Tony Allen and Chandler Parsons missing the entire preseason is less than ideal (both are questionable for the opener). Memphis started launching threes at a rate we haven’t seen from them before in the preseason, expect that to carry over to the regular season. This is the new David Fizdale Grizzlies, and they play with pace and launch threes, we’ll see how that works long term.

Wizards small icon 15. Wizards (41-41). They finally start the season with a healthy backcourt in John Wall and Bradley Beal (now they just have to play well together), but they are banged up along the front line with no Ian Mahinmi (knee surgery, out for at least a month). Washington had the fifth-best point differential in the league during the preseason, outscoring opponents by 6 points per 100 possessions — can they keep that up when the games matter?

Mavericks small icon 16. Mavericks (42-40). The $94 million man Harrison Barnes shot 22.6 percent in the preseason, not a good sign. We all know what he’s getting paid Mavs’ fans, but this is a big adjustment for him and you’re going to have to be patient as he figures out how to play a leading role. Dallas had an ugly preseason, getting outscored by 8.5 points per 100 possessions (25th in the league), but that likely does not foreshadow what is to come during the regular season.

Pistons small icon 17. Pistons (44-38). This seems low, but no Reggie Jackson for the first 3-5 weeks of the season (knee tendonitis) is a blow. Stan Van Gundy wants his team to improve on the defensive end and get into the top 10 in the league, and that’s the test they face early in the season going against some the league’s best offensive teams the first three weeks. Get through the first month and things should look up in Detroit.

Hornets small icon 18. Hornets (48-34). Charlotte had the worst offense in the NBA during the preseason (90.2 points per 100 possession). Last season the Hornets made the biggest offensive leap of any team in the NBA, hopefully for them the preseason was just an anomaly (it’s hard to read much into those games). The Hornets should again be a top 10 defensive team this season under Steve Clifford, and that will carry them.

Bulls small icon 19. Bulls (42-40). The question is how the offense is going to look on a team where the key contributors — Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo — are not guys opponents fear when they take a three. Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic will be key off the bench to provide spacing. My main question: Why exactly bring Fred Holberg out of college for his pace-and-space system if you’re not going to give him players that fit it? A heavy dose of road games for the Bulls before Thanksgiving.

Knicks small icon 20. Knicks (32-50). All the roster turnover last summer followed by key players missing time in the preseason — Joakim Noah due to injury, Derrick Rose due to his trial — means it’s going to take time for the pieces to fit together in the regular season. I’m skeptical Rose and Carmelo Anthony, both ball stoppers on offense, can mesh well in Jeff Hornacek’s system. The Knicks are going to have to figure all this out against the toughest schedule in the Eastern Conference over the first month of the season.

Nuggets small icon 21. Nuggets (33-49). Tough schedule to start with 6-of-7 on the road and 8-of-10 games against teams that were above .500 last season. I like that coach Mike Malone is playing Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic together to start games. There are a lot of other GMs watching to see how the Nuggets start the season because if it’s slow Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Kenneth Faried all could be put on the trade block (and there would be interest from some teams).

Bucks small icon 22. Bucks (33-49). The Kris Middleton injury is devastating — he was the glue that held some funky lineups together in Milwaukee. I like the Tony Snell deal for them better than most, but he’s still a serious downgrade at the position. The Bucks struggled in the preseason (outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions, despite the 3-3 record) because their offense was unimpressive. They need shooters around the Greek Freak.

Kings small icon 23. Kings (33-49). With the Cubs back in the World Series, the Kings take over the dubious banner of “team who hasn’t been to its sport’s Finals for the longest time” in American major sports. The last time the Kings were in the Finals was 1951. Forget the Finals, the Kings just want to make the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Beautiful new building, but the Kings have no Darren Collison for the first eight games (suspension for a domestic violence plea bargain), and they face a tough road-heavy schedule without him to start the season.

Pelicans small icon 24. Pelicans (30-52). Anthony Davis is back from his sprained ankle and will be ready to roll opening night. I like some of their summer moves — Solomon Hill, Langston Galloway, and E’twaun Moore are good free agent signings, while Buddy Hield is going to develop into a quality two guard — but they are desperately going to miss Jrue Holiday (and to a slightly lesser extent Tyreke Evans) to start the season. Holiday is the glue that brings this team together.

Magic small icon 25. Magic (35-47). On paper this ranking feels too low for an Orlando team with dreams of a strong defense leading them to the playoffs. However, their preseason (2-5, outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions, 29th in defense) did nothing to inspire that this team will put it together. Relatively soft start to the NBA schedule for the first month, which might help them get some wins, gain some confidence, and allow coach Frank Vogel to figure out the rotations that work. I still don’t love Aaron Gordon as a three, he’s much better suited for the four.

Heat small icon 26. Heat (48-34). Maybe this is too low, but the loss of Chris Bosh (along with Dwyane Wade over the summer) makes this look more like the start of a rebuilding process. They should be an entertaining, up-and-down team with Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow, not to mention Hassan Whiteside. Dion Waiters will have his good nights… and his bad ones. If they start slow expect the Dragic trade rumors to heat up.

Suns small icon 27. Suns (23-59). There are a lot of good players in Phoenix: Devin Booker is going to be a stud at the two, Eric Bledsoe and Tyson Chandler are veterans who can contribute, and Marquese Chriss shows promise (and a lot of athleticism). But the pieces have never fit together there, and I’ll need to see it to believe it. The Suns were a top 10 defensive team during the preseason, if they can carry that over to games that matter they will climb these rankings (and the standings) quickly.

Lakers small icon 28. Lakers (17-56). The team with the toughest first 20 game schedule in the Western Conference? You guessed it. Tough way for the Lakers to start with a young team and a rookie head coach. D'Angelo Russell is already a dangerous pick-and-roll ball handler who is going to put up numbers this season, and Brandon Ingram has shown flashes of figuring things out, but it’s going to a learning curve season. Also, where did this focused, sharp-shooting Nick Young come from and is he sticking around?

Nets small icon 29. Nets (21-61). They are going to be a decent to good offensive team with Brook Lopez and Jeremy Lin playing off each other and Kenny Atkinson’s offense spacing the floor. I’m far less sold that they are going to get enough stops to win many games. Bad breaks of the schedule, no team plays fewer teams on the second night of a back-to-back this season than the Nets (seven all season).

Sixers small icon 30. 76ers (10-71). Brett Brown just wants to get his numerous young front court players healthy so he can see how it all fits together, but Ben Simmons and Nerlens Noel are out with foot injuries that will eat up large chunks of their season. Joel Embiid has been a beast in preseason and if he gets enough run should be in the Rookie of the Year mix. A dark horse ROY candidate? Dario Saric. Also, this is going to be an entertaining team to watch when Sergio Rodriguez has the ball in his hands.

Lakers keep Metta World Peace and Thomas Robinson, waive Anthony Brown

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 15:  Metta World Peace #37 of the Los Angeles Lakers stands on the court during warmups before a preseason game against the Golden State Warriors at T-Mobile Arena on October 15, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Golden State won 112-107. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

The NBA just can’t shake Metta World Peace as a player.

Despite the Lakers’ reported intention of waiving World Peace and making him an assistant coach, they’ll keep him, Thomas Robinson and Nick Young into the regular season. After waiving Yi Jianlian at his request, they’ll also waive Anthony Brown.

Lakers release:

The Los Angeles Lakers have waived forward Anthony Brown, it was announced today by General Manager Mitch Kupchak.

Brown was the No. 34 pick just last year, but he didn’t show much as a rookie and is already 24. There was no need to keep him over more valuable players – like Robinson.

But World Peace, who turns 37 next month? He’s washed up and offers no upside. The Lakers don’t already have enough veteran leadership between Luol Deng, Jose Calderon, Lou Williams and Timofey Mozgov?

The Lakers probably won’t regret dropping Brown – though they might – but there are better uses for a roster spot in 2016 than World Peace.

51 Questions: Which team will win the West? Make NBA Finals?

Leave a comment

It is the final days of PBT’s 2016-17 NBA preview series, 51 Questions. For six weeks we have tackled 51 questions we cannot wait to see answered during the upcoming NBA season. Today the PBT staff answers the biggest questions of them all this season:

Which teams make the playoffs, then who wins the East? Who will be NBA champion?

Here are our staff predictions.

Kurt Helin

1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Clippers
4. Jazz
5. Rockets
6. Grizzlies
7. Trail Blazers
8. Thunder

Western Conference Finals:
Warriors over Clippers
NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers

There is a clear top three in the West, and while I think Golden State gets the top seed (but falls just short of 70 wins) I could flip Los Angeles and San Antonio without a problem — and I like the Clippers more in the postseason, they finally get past the second round. Much like the East, then I think 4-11 are all going to be within a handful of games of each other — Dallas, Minnesota, and Denver all could get into the playoffs with good health and a few breaks. Maybe Sacramento, too, but a lot more needs to go right for them.

As for the NBA Finals, the Warriors and Cavaliers are just clear and away the best teams on paper and, assuming health, it’s hard not to pick another Finals rematch. However, this time the Cavaliers can’t put LeBron James on Draymond Green when the Warriors go small because of the threat of Kevin Durant, and that opens up the Warriors offense again in ways it was shut down in the last Finals.

Dan Feldman

1. Warriors
2. Clippers
3. Spurs
4. Rockets
5. Jazz
6. Trail Blazers
7. Thunder
8. Grizzlies

Western Conference Finals: Warriors over Clippers
NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers

I’d give the Warriors about a 50-50 chance of winning the title — which means there’s no way I’m picking any other single team. The Clippers and Spurs lead the pack fighting for second, and I’m clearly intrigued by Houston’s offensive prowess with Mike D’Antoni and James Harden. The Timberwolves and Nuggets could knock on the postseason door, but I don’t think either is quite ready.

Dane Carbaugh

1. Warriors
2. Clippers
3. Spurs
4. Thunder
5. Blazers
6. Jazz
7. Rockets
8. Mavericks

Western Conference Finals: Warriors vs. Spurs
NBA Finals: Warriors over Cavaliers

I genuinely hope I’m wrong about how the West shakes out if only for Chris Paul‘s sake. The Point God and his band of Merry Complainers are in a perfect position to take over a stratified Western Conference that will doubtless be a bastion of parity in only a few years time. But the Clippers just always fall short somehow, be it injury or otherwise. I’m going with the Spurs — who had a historic defensive season in 2015-16 — and who are just too good on paper vs. the rest of the competition. San Antonio still might be the only team that can challenge Golden State, as weird as that sounds.