NBA Playoffs, Magic v. Celtics Game 2: Orlando can't just be different, they have to be better

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Screen shot 2010-05-18 at 12.57.11 PM.pngThe Magic made a ridiculous comeback to make the finale of Game of the Eastern Conference Finals more competitive than the bulk of the game, but Orlando still dropped home court advantage and played anything but an impressive game. A Magic team that had been completely untouchable in the playoffs prior to this series now seems very beatable, provided the Celtics continue to defend.

One of the most discussed culprits for Orlando’s Game 1 demise was Dwight Howard’s post play. Howard, even at his most efficient, never quite seems at home in the post, and that’s fine. The responsibility in this case is not Dwight’s; it’s not prudent for him to do something completely unnatural or something as misguided as trying to bully Kendrick Perkins deep into the post.

Instead, Howard’s offense needs to be part of an adjusted system. The Celtics were ready for the Magic going into Game 1, and by eliminating the threat of Orlando’s three-point shooters, the C’s were able to win the day. The foundation of that plan eroded when Jameer Nelson started breaking down the defense, which is clearly an offensive development of the greatest import for the Magic.

Oddly enough, Nelson’s — and Orlando’s — success didn’t lean too heavily on the pick-and-roll. The 2009 series between the Magic and Celtics was greatly influenced by Stan Van Gundy’s ability to get Howard on the move, where he could use his athleticism to its greatest advantage. The same has been heralded as a potential Orlando adjustment for Game 2, but as usual, that won’t quite be enough.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, Orlando was only able to execute three pick-and-roll plays that ended with the roll man (only one of those plays involved Dwight Howard). In contrast, 21 pick-and-roll plays ended with the ball handler. That tells you that the Magic’s problem wasn’t necessarily the lack of frequency in running pick-and-roll plays, but that they struggled in executing them.  

Howard can score down low, even if Game 1 wasn’t his finest performance. However, the Celtics are not going to double team him regardless of his effectiveness, meaning the endgame of Dwight’s dominance will only be his solo production. With Jameer penetrating though, all of a sudden Boston’s bigs have to rotate. Dwight’s open for the lob, or Rashard gets some room in the corner. The Celtics will continue to work and contest, but the shots will continue to get easier for the Magic if they’re willing to work with them.

There’s nothing wrong with a player like Jameer Nelson or Vince Carter creating for themselves off of a screen, but Orlando’s two-man game will have to be more balanced if their offense is going to make a true comeback tonight. Unpredictability can only be a good thing in this case, as the well-defended Magic pick-and-roll in Game 1 only generated 0.67 points per possession. Dwight’s horribly unrefined post-ups, for comparison’s sake, scored 0.79 points per possession.

Running more pick-and-rolls isn’t the answer, just like running more post-ups or more isolation plays isn’t the answer. Orlando needs to make the necessary adjustments, but just has to play better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1.

They’ve certainly given themselves room for improvement. Sebastian Pruiti of NBA Playbook broke down the video for some of the Magic’s early three-point attempts, which were shockingly good but just didn’t go down. Dwight caught plenty of rim on a number of and-one attempts, but the rolls didn’t go his way. Rashard Lewis was invisible, Vince Carter started off as a one-man show, and Matt Barnes really didn’t do anything constructive in his 15 minutes on the floor.

The rotation and approach will be tweaked, but this Magic team is good enough to expect other kinds of improvement. There’s enough talent there that you can expect more shots to fall for them even if Boston is on a roll defensively. The Celtics deserve credit for the defense in Game 1, but it wasn’t the only factor influencing the Magic’s subpar offensive production. Orlando did plenty to work against themselves, and only so much of that will be solved with schemes and lineups. 

Carmelo Anthony on shrinking role with Knicks: ‘I see the writing on the wall… I’m at peace with that’

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Carmelo Anthony scored just nine points on 12 shots in the Knicks loss to the Heat last night — well below his season averages of 22 points on 19 shots per game.

Anthony, via Ian Begley of ESPN:

“I see the writing on the wall. I see what it is,” Anthony said late Wednesday night. “I see what they’re trying to do, and it’s just me accepting that. That’s what puts me at peace. Just knowing and understanding how things work. I’m at peace with that.”

Is Anthony talking about just the Knicks’ final dozen games of this season, when they’re clearly interesting in testing less-proven players? Or is he referring to his entire tenure in New York?

Anthony has said he’d consider waiving his no-trade clause if the Knicks want to rebuild, and they’ll reportedly try again to trade him this offseason. Perhaps, this is Anthony indicating he’s warming up to the idea of allowing a trade.

Anthony’s and Kristaps Porzingis‘ timelines are barely compatible, if at all. It’d make sense for the Knicks to go in a different direction.

Could Anthony be at peace with that?

Dwight Howard’s offensive rebounding defies convention

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Hawks president/coach Mike Budenholzer has the authority to set the Hawks’ priorities.

“Organizationally, fundamentally,” Budenholzer said, “transition D is more important than anything.”

Dwight Howard challenges that daily.

Howard has already built a Hall of Fame résumé:

  • Eight-time All-NBA center, including five-time first teamer
  • Three-time Defensive Player of the Year
  • Five-time rebounding champ

But the big man is doing something he’s never done before: Grab 15.2% of available offensive rebounds.

And he’s doing it at age 31 in a league that has increasingly deemphasized offensive rebounding. The NBA will set a record this season for lowest offensive-rebounding percentage for the fourth straight year.

Teams have just figured getting back on defense trumps crashing the offensive glass, the strategy emanating most prominently from the Spurs. Budenholzer, a former San Antonio assistant coach, brought the plan straight to Atlanta. The Hawks ranked 28th, last and last in offensive-rebounding in his first three seasons — in part for philosophical reasons, in part because they’ve lacked the personnel to do better. They’ve also been a below-average defensive-rebounding team each season under Budenholzer.

Then Howard signed and forced Budenholzer to adjust.

Atlanta has become an above-average offensive-rebounding team and far better with Howard on the court – a helpful crutch with ace 3-point shooters Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague traded. The Hawks are ceding more transition opportunities, though they remain very good at defending those.

It’s an obvious tradeoff, says Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons coach who coached Howard with the Magic sees the center in the rare class of players who deserve full autonomy to chase offensive rebounds.

“You don’t limit those guys,” Van Gundy said.

Howard has made the most of his freedom to chase rebounds. His 15.2 offensive-rebounding percentage ranks second to only Kenneth Faried among qualified players.

And, again, Howard is 31. Offensive rebounding tends to be a young man’s game.

Here’s top 10 in offensive rebounding this season, plotted by age:

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Player Team Age Offensive-rebounding percentage
Kenneth Faried DEN 27 16.1
Dwight Howard ATL 31 15.4
Andre Drummond DET 23 15.2
JaVale McGee GSW 29 15
Tarik Black LAL 25 14.8
Tristan Thompson CLE 25 14
Rudy Gobert UTA 24 13.9
Enes Kanter OKC 24 13.9
Kyle O'Quinn NYK 26 13.9
Willy Hernangomez NYK 22 13.8

Howard’s previous career-high offensive-rebounding percentage was 13.8.

The only other players to set career-high offensive-rebounding rates north of 15% after their age-30 season: Dennis Rodman (20.8% at age 33 with the 1994-95 Spurs) and Alan Henderson (15.6% at age 32 with the 2004-05 Mavericks). Both Rodman (Cooke County Junior College and Southeastern Oklahoma State) and Henderson (Indiana) played four years of college basketball, giving them less wear and tear on their bodies and fewer opportunities to post career highs at a young age.

Howard jumped to the NBA straight from high school.

Yet, he’s having a resurgent year in his 13th season. How is he doing it?

“One, I’m not super old,” Howard said earlier this season. “Two, my body feels great. I’ve been doing a lot of stuff to take care of my body.”

Known for eating legendary amounts of candy earlier in his career, perhaps Howard has made a breakthrough. His defensive-rebounding percentage (31.8) is the second-best of his career and ranks fourth in the NBA. That has helped him anchor the league’s fourth-best defense.

Howard has been subject to widespread criticism, and last season with the Rockets was a low point. This year, Howard has recommitted to the basics: Rebounding, defending, scoring inside.

“He’s got a big personality, but I think we all knew that,” Budenholzer said. “But it’s all in the right place. He wants good things, and I’ve really enjoyed coaching him.”

So much so that Budenholzer has compromised a core basketball tenet for Howard.

And it has proved a worthwhile decision.

JaVale McGee misses open dunk (video)

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Shaquille O’Neal said he’d stop talking about JaVale McGee, who has featured prominently on Shaqtin A Fool.

This missed dunk, a low point in the Warriors’ otherwise-impressive win over the Spurs, will test Shaq’s sincerity.

Grizzlies’ James Ennis fouls out then hits half-court shot (video)

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Against the Pacers last night, James Ennis missed all three of his 3-point attempts… that counted. And he makes this one after fouling out?

Mike Conley more than picked up the slack to lead the Grizzlies to victory.