Proof that the "Hot Hand" exists… on the free throw line

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One thing that stat heads have been saying for the last year or so is that the “hot hand” does not exist. A study at the Sloan Analytics conference a few years ago crunched the numbers on how well players shot after making one or several shots against how they shot after missing one or several shots, and found absolutely no evidence that would suggest the “hot hand” exists. 

On one hand, that finding doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Everyone who’s ever played basketball or just shot baskets knows the feeling one gets when he hits a couple in a row, feels like he’s finally figured it all out, and feels like he simply cannot miss. Everyone who’s ever watched basketball has likely watched one of their favorite players absolutely bury a team in a matter of minutes when he got hot from the outside. 
So how can a comprehensive study show that the hot hand doesn’t exist? Well, think about what a player has to do to keep a “hot streak” going. If a player believes himself to be hot, what he’ll often do is try and make sure he gets a shot on the next possession. That strategy often results in a shot significantly more difficult than the one before it, and one the defense knows is coming. If the player chooses to wait for a high-percentage look, he runs the risk of not getting one until he’s not “feeling it” anymore. Given all that, it’s not surprising that no study can find evidence of a “hot hand,” even though it may still exist. 
So the lurking variable of shot selection makes it almost impossible to find any true evidence for a “hot hand” effect on field goals. In fact, the only way to get any real data on whether the “hot hand” exists or not would be to find a shot that every player took from the exact same spot on the floor while being defended in the exact same way. Fortunately for the NBA statistical community, somebody figured out that free throws do exist, and did a “hot hand” study that focuses on the free throws. 
Economist Jeremy Arkes recently did a study that focused on the effect of making the first free throw of a pair on the second free throw, and found evidence that players are more likely to make the second free throw after make the first one. Arkes’ study shows that the “hot hand” phenomena that almost everybody has felt at one time or another does exist in one aspect of the NBA game. This could easily be taken to mean that players can get hot on jump shots from the field — whether those “hot streaks” will ever be able to be quantified remains to be seen. 

Report: Clippers’ management remains committed to re-signing Blake Griffin

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Maybe Friday night in Utah, maybe not for a few weeks, but the Clippers season is going to end before they reach the conference finals, and with Blake Griffin sidelined by injury. It’s an all-too-familiar scene. It will be six seasons of the Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Griffin experience in Los Angeles, and they will not have gotten out of the second round (unless you think they can come back on the Jazz from down 3-2, then beat the Warriors).

That has come with a lot of talk about the Clippers breaking up the core. Jordan remains under contract, Paul would be too hard to replace, and that leads to a lot of speculation — inside and outside the league — that Griffin could be on the move this summer, when he becomes a free agent.

That’s not what the Clippers want, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports in a video essay.

Management remains committed to signing him to a long-term deal this summer, league sources tell me.

Doc Rivers has said he wants to bring back this core. Multiple times. His argument is that this is a 50+ win team that is one of the better teams in the NBA, why would you take a big step back rather than look for the tweaks that get the team to a title?

Steve Ballmer has the checkbook deep enough to pay both Paul and Griffin max money (although keeping fellow free agent J.J. Redick as well would be difficult). The Clippers will have one of the highest payrolls in the NBA, and is this team worth that? Especially in a conference where the Mount Everest of Golden State is not going anywhere for a few years, not to mention the Spurs and Rockets will remain good, Utah is on the rise, and so are teams like the Wolves. The Clippers will be a good team that needs a lot of breaks to go their way to really contend — how much would Ballmer pay for that?

The Clippers need to do some soul searching this offseason.

Just don’t be shocked if the result of that is them running this team back again.

Playing through sore knee, Jimmy Butler says “I’m good,” will go in Game 6

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At this point in the season, everyone is banged up. It’s just a matter of degree.

But with Rajon Rondo listed as out for Game 6, the Bulls’ need a big game from Jimmy Butler if they are going to extend this series to a Game 7. And he is not near 100 percent.

In Game 4, Butler banged knees with a Celtic and it impacted him during Game 5, as Vincent Goodwill detailed at CSNChicago.com.

But he could only muster two shots and barely seemed to push off on his left foot—his lead foot, and it hampered what the Bulls could do late as he was their prime fourth-quarter performer.

He couldn’t even go straight up on a jumper over the diminutive Isaiah Thomas without pump-faking, throwing off his rhythm. He wouldn’t elaborate on the injury, although he said it happened during the second half of Game 4 on Sunday night when he collided with a Celtics player.

“I’m good. Everyone’s a little nicked up; I’ll be all right,” Butler said in the locker room.

K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune added this detail.

Boston has done a good job of limiting the number of times Isaiah Thomas is exposed on defense, having to cover Wade or Butler. Essentially, the Celtics switch in sort of a matchup zone to keep IT covering a shooter on the wing, even if his man goes up and sets the pick. Zone’s can be exposed (there’s a reason they’re more a change-of-pace rather than a basic set defense in the NBA), but it involves getting into the middle, getting into the paint. Which comes back to driving the ball and pushing off, things that Butler is struggling to do at his usual level.

There are a lot of other factors favoring Boston in Game 6, but if Chicago is going to force a Game 7 Sunday they need Butler to be an All-NBA level player.

Knicks’ Joakim Noah has expected shoulder surgery to repair rotator cuff

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NEW YORK (AP) — Knicks center Joakim Noah has had right shoulder surgery to repair his rotator cuff, a procedure that could sideline him until training camp.

The Knicks say Noah had the surgery Wednesday at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York, performed by Dr. David Altchek.

The team didn’t give a timetable for Noah’s recovery, but coach Jeff Hornacek said late in the season that if Noah had the operation, the recovery time could be five months.

Noah had an injury-plagued season that ended early when he was suspended 20 games by the NBA for violating the league’s anti-drug policy. There are still 12 games remaining on the penalty that he will have to serve next season when healthy.

Noah had surgery on his other shoulder last season, limiting him to 29 games in his final season in Chicago before signing a four-year, $72 million deal with New York.

PBT Extra: Pacers offseason moves start with Paul George

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Larry Bird, when not delivering All-Star Game bids, should be spending his time lighting candles and praying in churches all over Indianapolis that Paul George makes an All-NBA team.

If PG13 makes the cut, Bird’s job this summer becomes more clear: Offer George the designated player max extension, get him to sign the deal, then get back to building a contender around him.

If George doesn’t make the cut, things get much tougher for Bird. I discuss all of it in this new PBT Extra.