Proof that the "Hot Hand" exists… on the free throw line

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One thing that stat heads have been saying for the last year or so is that the “hot hand” does not exist. A study at the Sloan Analytics conference a few years ago crunched the numbers on how well players shot after making one or several shots against how they shot after missing one or several shots, and found absolutely no evidence that would suggest the “hot hand” exists. 

On one hand, that finding doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Everyone who’s ever played basketball or just shot baskets knows the feeling one gets when he hits a couple in a row, feels like he’s finally figured it all out, and feels like he simply cannot miss. Everyone who’s ever watched basketball has likely watched one of their favorite players absolutely bury a team in a matter of minutes when he got hot from the outside. 
So how can a comprehensive study show that the hot hand doesn’t exist? Well, think about what a player has to do to keep a “hot streak” going. If a player believes himself to be hot, what he’ll often do is try and make sure he gets a shot on the next possession. That strategy often results in a shot significantly more difficult than the one before it, and one the defense knows is coming. If the player chooses to wait for a high-percentage look, he runs the risk of not getting one until he’s not “feeling it” anymore. Given all that, it’s not surprising that no study can find evidence of a “hot hand,” even though it may still exist. 
So the lurking variable of shot selection makes it almost impossible to find any true evidence for a “hot hand” effect on field goals. In fact, the only way to get any real data on whether the “hot hand” exists or not would be to find a shot that every player took from the exact same spot on the floor while being defended in the exact same way. Fortunately for the NBA statistical community, somebody figured out that free throws do exist, and did a “hot hand” study that focuses on the free throws. 
Economist Jeremy Arkes recently did a study that focused on the effect of making the first free throw of a pair on the second free throw, and found evidence that players are more likely to make the second free throw after make the first one. Arkes’ study shows that the “hot hand” phenomena that almost everybody has felt at one time or another does exist in one aspect of the NBA game. This could easily be taken to mean that players can get hot on jump shots from the field — whether those “hot streaks” will ever be able to be quantified remains to be seen. 

Byron Scott isn’t thinking about next year’s draft

Byron Scott
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A month into the season, the Lakers the only team in the Western Conference that can absolutely be written out of any hopes of playoff contention. They’re in an awkward position with the upcoming draft: they still need talent long-term, and they owe their pick to the Sixers if it’s outside of the top three. Not surprisingly, Byron Scott isn’t thinking about it at all.

Via Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News:

With the Lakers fielding the NBA’s second-worst record, how much effort will the franchise put in retaining its top-3 protected draft pick?

“I don’t think about that whatsoever,” Lakers coach Byron Scott said. “I probably won’t until April. That’s something I can’t control.”

The Lakers are in a precarious position. They appear likely bad enough to lose a lot of games. But will they lose enough to land in the top three? Otherwise, the Lakers owe Philadelphia their first-round pick as part of the Steve Nash trade.

“It’s impossible to think about the team, try to get our young guys better, the team better and also thinking about a pick,” Scott said. “That’s six months away and you might not even get it.”

Given Scott’s mentality, it’s not at all surprising that he isn’t thinking about the draft. But with his insistence on playing Kobe Bryant and Lou Williams more crunch-time minutes on this dismal Lakers team than D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson, it’s pretty laughable that he talks about wanting to develop their young players.

Scott may not be thinking about the draft, but with the position the franchise is in and the likelihood that they lose their pick, he should be.

Report: Jahlil Okafor stopped for driving 108 MPH three weeks ago

Jahlil Okafor, Derrick Favors

Jahlil Okafor‘s first month in the NBA has been eventful for all the wrong reasons. Early Thanksgiving morning, he was caught on video getting into a fight with a heckler in Boston. Then, a report surfaced of another altercation from October, in which Okafor apparently had a gun pulled on him. Now, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Okafor was recently pulled over in Philadelphia for driving 108 miles per hour:

Four sources independently confirmed to The Inquirer the 76ers center was pulled over on the Ben Franklin Bridge around three weeks ago for 108 miles per hour. Anything over 40 m.p.h. is considered reckless driving.

108 miles per hour in a 40-mile zone isn’t a minor speeding infraction—it’s incredibly dangerous. It might be possible to write off any of these incidents by themselves—particularly the one where he had a gun pulled on him, which doesn’t seem to have been his fault at all. But together, the Boston incident and this speeding report aren’t a good look at all for Okafor. He’s had a solid start to the year for the Sixers, but off the court has been another story.

Harrison Barnes could be out “a few weeks” with ankle injury

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The Warriors’ Friday night 135-116 win over the Suns was bittersweet: Harrison Barnes suffered a sprained left ankle in the third quarter and left for the remainder of the game. He missed Saturday night’s blowout win over the Kings as well, which extended the Warriors’ best-ever start to the season to 18-0.

Warriors interim head coach Luke Walton didn’t have an answer for how long Barnes will be out, but he said it could be a few weeks.

Via’s Ethan Sherwood Strauss:

“He’s being evaluated [Saturday]. We haven’t gotten the results back yet,” interim head coach Luke Walton told reporters before Saturday’s game. “It’s all speculation. It could be a few weeks. It could be a week.

“We’re not going to rush him back because we want to be healthy for later in the season and we don’t want lingering injures, so we’ll have him take his time.”

Losing a starter is never good news, but the silver lining for the Warriors is that they have enough depth and enough of a cushion to be able to take their time and not rush Barnes back. Saturday night, Walton opted to keep Andre Iguodala in his usual sixth-man role and instead start the little-used Brandon Rush in Barnes’ place. Rush responded with a 16-point performance, shooting 4-of-5 from the three-point line. If they can keep getting that kind of production out of their reserves, the Warriors will be able to withstand the loss of Barnes just fine.

Emmanuel Mudiay with the no-look, behind-the-head assist (VIDEO)

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Emmanuel Mudiay is still a work in progress on the court — he’s a rookie, what did you expect? — but he has the court vision and flair you cannot teach.

As evidence, I present this pass from Saturday night, where in transition Mudiay goes with the no-look, behind-the-head dish to Darrell Arthur for the dunk.

The Nuggets dropped this game to the Mavericks 92-81 and have lost six in a row.