So there’s a million lines of context to the Conference Finals. And we can and will discuss the intricacies of each one-on-one matchup. But what are some of the more distinct, specific elements of each team’s lineups? We decided to take a look.
First, how did things shake out in the four regular season meetings between these two? We turned to PopcornMachine.net which tracks individual lineup performances for an overview. We found some interesting things. Here are a few talking point bullets from that data.
- Turns out Orlando’s depth hasn’t been as much of a factor in these games as you’d think. All in all, they’re a -49 in the four games this year. Their biggest run was a four man group in the third game of the year, a Magic win, that was mostly fueled by a monster run from Dwight Howard, the only starter on the floor. Everyone talks about Orlando’s depth, but so far when these two have met.
- A +19 run by the Magic starters in their final meeting this year in the third quarter is telling. The Magic simply ran over the Celtics’ starters, finishing on a 25-2 run. We see similar patterns across the other games, where the third quarter spelled doom.
- Matt Barnes is a significant element in this series, if the regular season can tell us anything. He was an overall +21, and many of the Celtics runs were without him. Barnes’ length and willingness to get the dirty work done brings the Magic another element that’s important for their success.
- Brian Sclabrine only played in three games, but he was a +3.
- I’m just trying to come up with a positive side of this for the Celtics’ bench. Rasheed Wallace was -10. So from that perspective, it does not look like the Celtics have a good counter for Rashard Lewis.
- Popcorn Machine uses a metric called help value which is rebounds plus assists plus blocks plus steals minus turnovers. It’s a very crude metric, but Marcin Gortat had a 22 help value in limited minutes.
- Kevin Garnett had a 48 help value which is a good sign for the Celtics. Even though his plus/minus contribution was poor, at least he was able to put a mark on the game. Combine that with his production through the first two rounds of the playoffs and you’ve got several good signs for the Celtics.
Rajon Rondo has been arguably the best player in the playoffs. Against the Magic, this year, his production has not been great. He’s been good, just not great. The better news is that he’s outperformed Jameer Nelson. The Celtics have to win that matchup to gain an advantage.
It’ll be interesting to see how Tony Allen performs in this series. He’s got a tough assignment, and versus the more physical, penetration-based man assignments he had against the Cavs which he handled impressively, his work his going to have to be more cerebral, working off the double to recover on the perimeter and close off shooters. The Celtics will need Allen to even further exceed his performance thus far in the playoffs.
Four-fifth of the Chicago Bulls starting lineup this season is locked in: Rajon Rondo at the point, Dwyane Wade at the two, Jimmy Butler at the three, and Robin Lopez at center.
But who starts at the four? Taj Gibson? Nikola Mirotic? Bobby Portis?
Fred Hoiberg isn’t letting anyone know quite yet, via our friend Sean Highkin of The Athletic.
The conventional wisdom has been that Mirotic would get the start because with Rondo/Wade/Butler teams could just pack the paint, clog driving lanes, and force them to shoot jumpers. Mirotic shot 39 percent from three last season and could be a stretch four that opens driving lanes for the three guys who like to slash to the rim. The downside there is defense, which is why Gibson can’t be counted out.
Expect Hoiberg to try a lot of combos trying to figure out what works. That’s what preseason games are for.
It’s cool the 76ers had a baby-sized basketball for Jahlil Okafor to hold.
Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News:
Wait. That’s a regulation NBA ball?
Next summer, Stephen Curry will be a free agent.
With 100 percent certainty, he will be a max player.
With 99.9 percent certainty, he is not leaving the Golden State Warriors, if you talk to other teams around the league.
Still, when he heads to his hometown of Charlotte and a few other spots, he’s going to be asked about it. The topic came up on Tuesday, the first day of Warriors training camp practices, and Curry tried to shoot the idea of him leaving down. Here is the exchange, via Anthony Slater of the San Jose Mercury News.
Are you optimistic about your chances of coming back next offseason?
“Yes,” Curry said.
Kevin faced this a ton last year in almost every city he went. Are you gonna talk to him at all about that, how he handled it?
“Maybe,” Curry said. “But I’m not gonna let it distract me at all. I want to be back here. I like playing here. And that’s it. The rest of it is about what we’re gonna do this year.”
There are a lot of teams hoarding cap space and planning to make a run at free agents next summer, but no teams are setting their sights on Curry as happened with Durant. Where there was a sense around the league Durant wanted to look at his options and could be swayed, that is not the sense with Curry. He’s not going anywhere.
Maybe Curry plays the final couple years of his career back in his hometown of Charlotte, where his father played, but that’s a long ways off. At midnight July 1 next summer the Warriors will offer Curry a five-year max contract, he will sign it, and nothing will change in the Bay Area.
Chris Bosh‘s career with the Miami Heat is over due to recurring blood clots, according to team president Pat Riley. The Heat are ready to move on, although they don’t have many good options.
Chris Bosh wants to prove he can still play, something he reiterated Tuesday in his latest video for The Uninterrupted. “I feel right now that I can still play at that level,” Bosh said in the video.
When asked where he stood on this impasse, former Heat star and Bosh teammate LeBron James had Bosh’s back. Here is his quote, via Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel.
“I stand behind my brother Chris,” he said. “The most important thing is his health. Whatever decision he wants to do, I’m all for it. I support him in every way, shape and facet. It’s a difficult situation for him. I was pretty surprised to hear that the team was just done with him, for them to come out and say that. But it’s not like I’ve been there to know exactly what’s gone on. I’ve only seen it from the exterior. I wish the best for him, he has my support.”
Not sure what else LeBron would say, other than to have his friend’s back.
The resolution to Bosh’s situation is a long way off. The Heat will not play him, he will not retire, and no team is going to give up good players in a trade for a $75.8 million contract where the player may never set foot on the court again. There is going to be some kind of negotiated deal, likely with the league and players’ union pitching in. Nobody is sure yet what that deal will look like, however.