Late-game fouling dilemma less of a dilemma than you'd think

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Your team is up three points, and the other team has the ball with just seconds remaining in the game. There’s long been debate over the proper course of action: should a team foul to preemptively stop a game-tying three, or play honest defense and pray the ball doesn’t find the net?

Jonathan Abrams of the New York Times set out to analyze the issue in detail, enlisting the help of Synergy Sports Technology and a number of NBA coaches:

According to an analysis provided by Synergy Sports Technology,
the situation presented itself 165 times in the last two N.B.A. seasons
with 10 seconds or less left on the game clock. The conclusion?
Although coaches debate the strategy of fouling intentionally, most
rarely do. Teams deliberately fouled in only 19 of those instances.
(One team tried to foul but was unable to because of ball movement.) No
team fouled with a second or less remaining.

Teams that deliberately fouled won 17 of the 19 games in regulation and
lost once. Teams won all 14 of the games in which they purposefully
fouled with five seconds or less to play. One game went to overtime,
and the team that fouled when leading in regulation won.

When teams chose not to foul, they won 128 games and lost 4 in
regulation, according to Synergy, which logs every N.B.A. game and
provides data to teams. Fourteen games went to overtime, and the teams
split the victories.

I find two things about this data to be fairly surprising. The first bit is that coaches only elected to employ the strategy 11.5% of the time. Doc Rivers is cited amongst the firm advocates of fouling when up three, but Rivers aside, the data seems to show that the tactic is either restricted to a few zealots or a conditional decisions. Considering the nature of the debate, I naturally assumed that the frequency of such fouls would be a bit higher.

The second bit is that fouling when up three and not fouling when up three produced comparable win rates, with not fouling taking a slight edge. The sample size is still awfully small, but preventative fouling doesn’t appear to have a profound an impact as previously thought. The difference between the two options is fairly negligible given this data.

Perhaps the best part of Abrams’ piece, though, is the indirect discussion between the NBA’s top coaches. Everyone from Gregg Popovich to Larry Brown to Nate McMillan weighs in, and it’s perhaps even more enlightening to know each coach’s preference than it is to know the general trends.

Sixers Nerlens Noel to miss time following surgery on sore knee

CAMDEN, NJ - SEPTEMBER 26: Nerlens Noel #4 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on during media day on September 26, 2016 in Camden, New Jersey. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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During the ProBasketballTalk podcast with Sixers coach Brett Brown, you could hear the frustration in his voice. He has all these talented young front line players — Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Jahlil Okafor — but he can’t begin to figure out how they all fit together if he can’t get them on the court at the same time.

That problem just got worse.

The Sixers announced that Nerlens Noel will miss time following surgery to deal with soreness in his left knee. Here is the word from the press release itself:

During the normal course of evaluation and treatment for his left adductor strain, which was identified on October 6, Noel reported localized soreness in his left knee. After consulting with multiple specialists, the source of the soreness was identified as inflamed plica. Noel has elected to address the injury via a minor surgical procedure in the coming days.

The team gives no timeline for Noel’s return. Soreness from the plica — a band of tissue around the knee that is not important following birth — happens in some players and can be fixed by an arthroscopic surgery that removes the area being irritated. While the surgery is minor, it usually takes around six weeks to bounce back from this.

That likely means a little more run for Jahlil Okafor (just coming back from an injury of his own) and Richaun Holmes. But it’s just another injury setback for a Sixers team plagued by them.

The Sixers also announced that Jerryd Bayless will not have surgery on his wrist, but will remain out and be evaluated in two weeks.

If you didn’t watch the final seconds of the WNBA Finals, you should


This was flat out incredible.

After a back-and-forth, even series between the Minnesota Lynx and the Los Angeles Sparks, it came down to the final seconds (although maybe it shouldn’t have, the WNBA admitted Friday the referees missed a call with 1:14 left, giving the Sparks’ Nneka Ogwumike a bucket on a shot after the shot clock expired).

The biggest stars took over at the end, as you can see in the video above: L.A.’s Candace Parker drives and scores with 19 seconds left putting the Sparks up 75-74; Minnesota responded with a Maya Moore jumper to take the lead back, then it came down to Ogwumike (the WNBA’s 2016 MVP) getting the ball after a block by Sylvia Fowles and following it up with a fadeaway bucket that gave Los Angeles the title.

Congrats to Candace Parker on the win, after how she’s been overlooked on the awards circuit in the WNBA this season, this is some sweet revenge.

Report: Jrue Holiday’s wife, Lauren Holiday, undergoes successful brain surgery

NEW ORLEANS, LA - OCTOBER 31:  Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans handles the ball during a game against the Golden State Warriors at the Smoothie King Center on October 31, 2015 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images
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Pelicans point guard Jrue Holiday is away from the team as his wife, Lauren Holiday, battles a brain tumor.

First, Lauren gave birth to a healthy daughter.

Now, more good news.

John Reid of The Times-Picayune:

Hopefully, the Holidays continue to find good health.

UPDATE: Sixers coach says he “misspoke” about January timeline for Ben Simmons

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A Jones fracture — the broken bone in the foot that Philadelphia rookie Ben Simmons recently has surgery to repair — is difficult to put on a recovery timeline. That part of the foot (the outside of the foot closer to the ankle) does not get good blood flow and that can slow recovery. Plus with a prized rookie, the Sixers have a history of being cautious — and Simmons’ agent may want to be even more cautious.

But Brett Brown, the Sixers coach, said Friday afternoon he expected Simmons back on the court in January. Here is what he told Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

“It’s not doom and gloom,” Brown said when asked when asked how his team is adjusting to its various injuries at the moment. “Ben is coming back in January. We are still trying to find information on Jerryd [Bayless]. Jahlil [Okafor] is still trying to touch the court in his first preseason game.”

Within a couple hours, Brown had backtracked off that timeline. Here is his pregame quote Friday night, via

“I did mention a January hopeful return, and that was premature. That was a coach doing a lot more wishing than receiving instruction…

“We will play this out,” Brown said of Simmons. “Everything is on track with his rehab. It’s only been two weeks since the surgery. Over a short period of time, we will be better prepared to give a statement that will map out his future.”

While it is certainly possible Simmons is back in January, the Sixers history shows they are not going to push this. Even if it takes longer — maybe closer to the All-Star break — Brown would certainly work with it. As Brown told us when he joined PBT for a podcast, he wants to spend a lot of this season seeing how his young, athletic front line can play together? Can Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, and Dario Saric all play together in a big front line? How do Simmons and Embiid mesh? Simmons and Saric? Where does Nerlens Noel fit in all this once he returns from his latest injury?

Until Brown gets guys healthy and on the court it’s impossible to know.

For all our sakes, I hope Simmons is back in January. And if he is, the possibility of him still winning Rookie of the Year exists.