NBA's statistical revolution bringing real change, more winning

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Advocates for the use of statistical analysis in basketball are called many things: stat geeks, dorks, nerds, people who JUST NEED TO WATCH THE GAMES!!!, etc. Jokes are made about pocket-protectors, mothers’ basements, and middle-aged virgins.

And for what? The field and the data are hardly assuming of anything other than numerical findings, and best of all, the data provides a completely different approach that works in conjunction with, not in opposition to, more conventional basketball analysis. But the old guard has decided that members of the analytics community be classified as public enemies, mostly so claims that a team “lives and dies by the three” or “just knows how to win games” aren’t debunked by, y’know, facts.

Funny how those fact things can get in the way sometimes.

Dean Oliver, author of Basketball on Paper and Director of Quantitative Analysis for the Denver Nuggets, used the “advanced statistical measures as fact” bit as a motif during his panel discussions at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Not because advanced metrics are Truths with a capital T, but because they offer additional information that helps in decision-making.

Whether you’re assessing player value, determining a player’s strengths, figuring out which lineup to use, you want to amass as many facts as possible in order to make the best decision that you can. That’s all that the advanced stat movement is doing, essentially: giving more information from innovative angles to help people who make decisions about the game do so more effectively.

Shockingly, having that information available is helping the stat-savvy teams win a whole bunch of basketball games. From David Biderman of the Wall Street Journal:

According to interviews with every team, The Wall Street Journal found
that half the league’s teams this season have at least one of these
statisticians who helps make in-game, draft-day and trade-deadline
decisions. Many of these teams are among the NBA’s best. The list
accounts for all six division leaders, including the Orlando Magic and
Dallas Mavericks, who have a data analyst traveling with the team.
These 15 teams that have invested heavily in statistics have combined
to win 59.3% of their games this season. The 15 teams without such
analysts have won 40.7% of their games, and only three–the Phoenix
Suns, Utah Jazz and Atlanta Hawks–are on pace to make the postseason.

Look, there will always be radicals in every field. Some will claim that their metric is all-knowing and all-important, and it will make everyone in the analytics community look bad. But the important thing to remember is that those people represent an extreme minority; the rest of the “stat geeks” are perfectly rational, cogent people that are as willing to admit the flaws of their analysis as they are its strengths.

That’s where the community at large is being woefully misrepresented, and it’s a damn shame. This is the future of sports, and there’s no more fitting way for sport to evolve in the information age than by amassing the largest amount of data, both raw and analyzed, for usage and consumption.

PBT Extra: Who do you want to see most in first All-Star Game?

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Tonight the NBA All-Star Game starters will be announced. Then the coaches have a week to vote and the rest of the roster will be put together by them.

This year should see a few first-time All-Stars, guys bursting on the scene and grabbing fans attention — so we asked people on Twitter who they most wanted to see in his first All-Star Game and I break it down in this PBT Extra.

The winner? Giannis Antetokounmpo with 45 percent of the vote. Which shouldn’t be a surprise, he’s second in the fan voting for the frontcourt in the East (behind only LeBron James). Good news for those fans, the Greek Freak is almost guaranteed to be a starter, he’s getting plenty of media votes and likely a lot from the players as well.

Second place in the poll? Joel Embiid of the Sixers. I’d love to see him, but will players and media members vote in a guy on a minutes restriction? Will the coaches pick him for that same reason? He is on the bubble.

Russell Westbrook: ‘Don’t say what’s up to that b— a—’ (video)

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Did Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant talk during the Warriors’ win over the Thunder last night? Westbrook said no, though video and first-hand accounts indicate otherwise.

Even more clearly: Westbrook – who walked near teammates Enes Kanter, Anthony Morrow and Jerami Grant – didn’t want someone talking to someone as they left the floor after the game. ESPN caught Westbrook saying, “Don’t say what’s up to that b— a—.”

You will never convince anyone Westbrook is referring to anyone but Durant.

Russell Westbrook commits epic travel (video)

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Between getting laid out by Zaza Pachulia and apparently talking with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook committed a travel for the ages.

The Thunder guard took an inbound pass against the Warriors and just started walking up court without dribbling. The violation was so blatant, NBA officials even called the travel.

And it’s not as if they’re inclined to blow a whistle in that situation. Before Westbrook, Kemba Walker set a high bar last season, but he got away with this walk:

Are Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant on speaking terms after apparent conversation? Westbrook: ‘Nah’ (video)

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Russell Westbrook deleted Kevin Durant‘s goodbye text and, months later, told the whole world they still hadn’t talked.

That apparently changed during the Warriors’ win over the Thunder yesterday – though not if you ask Westbrook.

Westbrook dunked in the third quarter, and according to ESPN commentator Mark Jackson, Westbrook told Durant, “Don’t jump.” Anthony Slater of The Mercury News also wrote of the same quote.

ESPN’s telecast caught Durant clearly speaking to Westbrook shortly after. It appears Westbrook is talking back, but his back is to the camera.

After the game, Westbrook denied the exchange:

 

  • Reporter: “Are you and KD on speaking terms?”
  • Westbrook: “Nah.”
  • Reporter: “You guys had a little exchange in the third quarter.”
  • Westbrook: “What exchange?”
  • Reporter: “You and KD said something to each other.”
  • Westbrook: “Oh. You gotta maybe sit closer to the game. You maybe didn’t see clearly.”

This is so Westbrook – stubborn to the point of denying reality.

That approach worked for him when everyone rightly told him he was a significantly lesser player than Durant. Westbrook ignored that fact until it became false.

I suspect he wants to forget this exchange so he can maintain a cold animosity toward someone he prefers to resent.