Is Joe Johnson really an elite free agent to be?

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johnson_game.jpgThe math is pretty simple. There are three sure-thing, worth-the-max-deal free agents available this summer: LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. There are eight teams that have cleared enough cap space to sign a max-level free agent, eight franchises that have sold hope this summer to their fan base.

One, maybe two of those teams is going to get the big-time player they want (there’s a chance none of the big three leave their current homes). That means a second tier of free agents may well get overpaid by some general manager trying not to look the fool.

Joe Johnson’s name gets tossed in with that second group all the time. But the insightful Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus ran the numbers and thinks signing Johnson will be a mistake because his game is about to fade away, like so many jumpshots.

There are a couple of factors at play here. First, Johnson’s statistics have never matched his reputation. Second, players of Johnson’s ilk–above-average starting wings–have tended to decline in a hurry in their early 30s. By year three, just two of Johnson’s top 10 comparables (Steve Smith and Jalen Rose) were offering their team any kind of value. A max deal (five years) for Johnson could end up very ugly.

Pelton is not the only one questioning if Joe Johnson is a good fallback, over at Blog-a-Bull (where they are already focused on the free agent market, because it’s more interesting than the Bulls on the court right now) the conventional wisdom is Johnson has a good year or two left, but his contract will likely be for five.

Pelton’s calculations — he is one of the best out there with the modern “moneyball” advanced statistics, the guy is just flat out good at this — say that GMs would be better with Manu Ginobili. Sure, the 2010 Manu is not as good as the 2006 version, but he is going to give some team a couple good years and his fade will be a little slower than Johnson. Just ask the Thunder after what Manu did to them Wednesday night.

Pelton even suggests that going after Rudy Gay or David Lee would be better long term than Johnson. Maybe even Tyrus Thomas.

Pelton is going to be right about this, and some general is going to be very, very wrong.

Joel Embiid: “I feel 100 percent”

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 30: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on prior to the game against the Utah Jazz on October 30, 2015 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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After missing two entire seasons, all signs are pointing to 2014 No. 3 overall pick Joel Embiid finally taking the court this season. Last week, Sixers coach Brett Brown said that Embiid has looked great in his workouts and is on track to play in the preseason, and Embiid himself echoed that sentiment over the weekend. He told the Philadelphia Inquirer‘s Marc Narducci that he feels “100 percent.”

There’s always a possibility and fear that Embiid’s recurring foot problems will come back, but for now, all indications are that he’s feeling good and will be able to contribute this season, which should make Sixers fans excited.

Evan Fournier pokes fun at his ‘NBA 2K’ likeness

OAKLAND, CA - MARCH 07:  Evan Fournier #10 of the Orlando Magic dribbles the ball against the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena on March 7, 2016 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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The release of NBA 2K17, the latest edition of the popular 2K video-game series, is less than a month away. Players are starting to get their likenesses in the game, as well as their player ratings, and tweet them out. Magic forward Evan Fournier wasn’t too happy with the way his came out.

Fournier’s countryman Rudy Gobert got in on the fun, too, changing his Twitter avatar to Fournier’s screenshot and encouraging others to do the same. He even created a hashtag for it.

At least they’re having fun with it.

Report: Sixers expected to waive Tibor Pleiss after trade with Jazz

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 30: Tibor Pleiss #21 of the Utah Jazz controls the ball in the game against the Philadelphia 76ers on October 30, 2015 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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On Friday, the Jazz traded German center Tibor Pleiss to the Sixers along with two second-round picks for Kendall Marshall. The big draw of the trade for Philly was the picks, and Pleiss is not expected to stay with the Sixers, according to Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia’s Jessica Camerato.

Pleiss had a forgettable season with Utah, and the Sixers have a glut of bigs including Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. It would have been virtually impossible for Pleiss to crack the rotation, and it’s unlikely another team picks up his contract, which has $3 million guaranteed this season.

Jordan releases new Russell Westbrook ad, may include a shot at Kevin Durant

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MAY 28:  Kevin Durant #35 of the Oklahoma City Thunder (L) and Russell Westbrook #0 look on during a press conference after the Golden State Warriors defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 108-101 in game six of the Western Conference Finals during the 2016 NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena on May 28, 2016 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images)
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As a Jordan Brand athlete, Russell Westbrook is under the same Nike umbrella as former teammate Kevin Durant. But his latest Jordan spot, released Friday, has a very pointed tagline: “Some run, some make runways.”

Given the circumstances, it’s hard to interpret that as anything other than a reference to Durant signing with the Warriors and Westbrook signing an extension with the Thunder.