Trade Deadline: DEFCON Central Division

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A quick look at the league, division by division, at where all the teams
in the NBA are as the trade deadline hits zero hour. DEFCON indicates
how close they are to a major move, with 5 means standing pat and 1
means already have a deal in place. Here’s the Central Division.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Why
They’ll Make A Move:
Because if they don’t prove to LeBron they can win a title this year, he may walk leaving their franchise is in complete ruins and collectively sending the state of Ohio into a depression that would make “Atonement” into Saturday Morning Cartoons.

Why They Won’t:
They have the best team in the league, the best player in the league, and they’re going to need space to re-sign that player.

Verdict: Currently talking to Phoenix, Washington, Golden State, and potentially the People’s United Republic of Uzbekistan.*

DEFCON: 1

*not a real country, much like the Warriors are not a real franchise

More after the jump.

Chicago Bulls:
Why
They’ll Make A Move:
They have to either create enough room to sign
two free agents or bring in an impact player that will help convince one
of the top free agents to come in. Also, Kirk Hinrich’s contract is
like a red hot gigantic chain around their necks, and the relationship
of their coaching staff to Tyrus Thomas is the polar opposite to that of
the fans to Tyrus Thomas.

Why They Won’t:
Because they’re only willing to pull the trigger if the deal is right,
and this is the team that signed Ben Wallace, let Ben Gordon go, and
gave Luol Deng a huge extension.

Verdict:  Behind the Knicks for the McGrady deal and unable to
find suitors for Hinrich, but Thomas is readily available and wanted.

DEFCON: 3

Milwaukee
Bucks:

Why
They’ll Make A Move:
Because they can. They have good young players
at reasonable salaries and enough cap room to absorb someone.

Why They Won’t:
They don’t have THAT much room under the cap, none of their big
contracts are movable (Bogut too valuable, Redd hurt), and the market
just isn’t there.

Verdict: All’s quiet on the northern front.

DEFCON: 5

Detroit Pistons:
Why
They’ll Make A Move:
They’re a terrible team with veteran players
that can still contribute with sizable contracts that are closer to the
end than the beginning of their term.

Why They Won’t:
Because Hamilton and Prince are no longer drumming up interest, no one
sees them as final pieces, and because their cap situation puts them
into pretty tight conditions.

Verdict: Haven’t heard a thing out of them, though Ben Wallace is
rumored to be out there.

DEFCON: 4

Indiana
Pacers:

Why
They’ll Make A Move:
Everyone likes Troy Murphy as a Plan C in the
Amar’e-Jamison sweepstakes. And due to the fact that their team is quite
possibly the worst in the league if you factor in talent, playmakers,
and upside. Getting worse would take an achievement in FAIL the likes of
which haven’t been seen since the Great Chicago Fire.

Why They Won’t:
Larry Bird has written off this season just like he wrote off last
season, and outside of Murphy, their players are untouchable, in the bad
way.

Verdict: Murphy could end up being the midnight hour target if
the Suns decide they haven’t gotten an offer good enough to move
Stoudemire.

DEFCON: 3

Lakers’ Lou Williams provides smooth scoring, trade intrigue

DALLAS, TX - JANUARY 22:  Louis Williams #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers at American Airlines Center on January 22, 2017 in Dallas, Texas.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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Lou Williams declared for the 2005 NBA draft out of high school and proclaimed, “The second round is not an option.”

He was drafted with the 15th pick of the second round.

“I used to have to run through everybody,” Williams said. “Now, I don’t feel like I do. Just trying to outsmart guys.”

The last guard drafted directly out of high school, Williams has quietly refined his game. His athleticism has declined with age, but gone too is a recklessness to his play. He largely makes the plays he can and doesn’t try to make the ones he can’t.

Williams is the Lakers’ best player. As a result, he’s also one of the league’s bigger trade chips as Thursday’s trade deadline approaches.

He leads the Lakers with 18.6 points per game, and they come in just 24.2 minutes per game. He makes that time count with a historic combination of volume and efficiency.

Both his usage percentage (30.6) and true shooting percentage (60.9) lead the team. The only regularly-used players to produce full seasons with a usage percentage of at least 30 and a true shooting percentage of at least 60 are or will be Hall of Famers:

Harden (again), Isaiah Thomas and Kawhi Leonard are also on pace to do it this year. All three were All-Stars.

Williams flies under the radar, because he usually comes off the bench for Los Angeles — though that offers special opportunity for recognition later in the season.

Already a Sixth Man of the Year winner (2015 with the Raptors), Williams leads eligible players in win shares this season:

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Williams and Dwight Powell (Mavericks) are the only reserves leading their teams in win shares.

In fact, Williams has been so much better than his teammates, he could maintain his team lead even if traded. His 5.1 win shares rank well ahead of the 3.3 by Nick Young (another trade candidate) and 2.2 by Larry Nance Jr.

But there’s still a relatively high likelihood he gets moved. The Lakers are focusing more on player development, and the 30-year-old Williams could help a team ready to win now.

He’s locked in for a bargain $7 million next season. So, his more-than-just-a-rental status could help the Lakers land a first-round pick.

“I just go out and play,” Williams said. “I let the powers make deals or if they don’t.”

There’s a patience in Williams’ game that has developed in recent years. He attributes some of it to a torn ACL in 2013. No longer as quick, the pick-and-roll ace has been forced to play smarter.

Williams has mostly eliminated long 2s from his game, getting more shots at the rim, 3-pointers and free throws. His craftiness fits the modern game.

But there are still concerns about how he’ll translate to a better team.

He’s a defensive liability, and his size limits paths to reliability on that end. Not only is he 6-foot-1, he often needs to play shooting guard because his playmaking for others is only so-so for a point guard.

But as poor as he’s been defensively (400th of 450 players in defensive real plus-minus), he has been even better offensively (13th in offensive real plus-minus behind only All-Stars and Nikola Jokic). Still, he relies heavily on drawing fouls, and his tricks might not be so effective during a playoff series with plenty of time to scout him.

There are risks in acquiring Williams. But getting another player having a special season — like, say, Jimmy Butler — would be tremendously more costly. As long as a team has a plan to accentuate Williams’ strengths and hide his weaknesses, he might be one of the best bargains on the trade market.

Paul George says he’s not motivated by opportunity to earn higher max

Eastern Conference forward Paul George of the Indiana Pacers (13) reacts during the second half of the NBA All-Star basketball game in New Orleans, Sunday, Feb. 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)
AP Photo/Max Becherer
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NEW ORLEANS — The Pacers have already granted a standing max offer to Paul George.

So, if he wants to stay in Indiana, his potential paths look relatively straightforward:

If he makes an All-NBA team this season, he can sign a designated-veteran-player extension that would kick in in 2018-19 and projects be worth about $209 million over five years (about $42 million annually).

If he doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season, he can wait to sign and try again to make one next season. If he does, he can sign a new contract in 2018 that would be worth the same $209 million or so over the same five-year period.

I think it’s this simple: If he becomes eligible to become a designated veteran player, he’ll sign then. If not, 2018 free agency projects to offer a choice of about $179 million over five years (about $36 million annually) to re-sign or about $133 million over four years (about $33 million annually) to sign elsewhere — a more difficult decision.

George says he’s not thinking about earning the higher max.

“You want to be one of the best,” George said. “And that’s the only motivation. You want to be All-NBA. That’s what you strive for. That’s what you want to play for, to be recognized as one of the league’s best players.”

That’s no small challenge for George, who was one of 12 All-Star forwards this year, joining:

With only six All-NBA forward spots, George faces long odds this season — and no easy path next season.

But at least eligibility for the higher max coincides with one of his goals.

“It’s nice. It’s nice,” George said. “But that’s not the motivation you want to play for”

Report: Chris Paul has already verbally agreed to re-sign with Clippers

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The Clippers are approaching a pivotal offseason with both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin entering unrestricted free agency.

Drama in LA?

Maybe not.

The team already did its part, pledging to spend “whatever it takes” to re-sign those two stars. Now, it appears the players are getting in line.

Griffin reportedly plans to re-sign quickly this summer. And it seems Paul will follow suit.

Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders:

He’ll opt out of his final $24.26 million and ink a new deal with the Clippers for north of $200 million. While Knicks fan often dream of a Carmelo Anthony-Paul tandem, it’s not going to happen. Sources close to the process said that it’s already been verbally agreed to and it’s simply a function of the calendar and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement kicking in.

If Paul demands the biggest deal possible — and why wouldn’t he? — it projects to be worth more than $207 million over five years.

But he can’t sign until July. That leaves the door open for things to sour with the Clippers and other teams to make pitches. Planning to re-sign is one — important — thing. Actually doing it is another.

The Clippers should turn their attention to J.J. Redick, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. They’ll have his Bird Rights, so they can exceed the cap to re-sign him. However, capped out even if he leaves, they will have no mechanism to adequately replace him.

A team with Paul, Griffin and DeAndre Jordan can’t afford to take that large of a step back. If Paul and Griffin re-sign, that gives Redick tremendous leverage.

What Vlade Divac learned in process of trading DeMarcus Cousins: ‘Not to trust agents’

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Kings general manager Vlade Divac seemingly had what he deemed a “better” offer for DeMarcus Cousins fall apart after Cousins’ camp dissuaded the other team from dealing for star.

That’s why Sacramento settled for the Pelicans’ meager package. The Kings, Divac said, feared the offers would only get worse as the trade deadline approaches.

This whole experience leaves Divac sounding jilted.

 

Sam Amick of USA Today:

The guy who declared publicly just two weeks ago that Cousins wouldn’t be traded is talking about not trusting agents? OK.

Divac reportedly told Cousins’ camp late Sunday afternoon that the center wouldn’t be traded and then reached a deal just a few hours later. There are conflicting accounts of how well Sacramento informed Cousins privately of their true intentions, but Divac public statements are enough to show hypocrisy here. The only question is precisely how hypocritical he’s being.

 

Cousins missed out on a lot of money — a projected $30 million or so — as a result of this trade. His agents were doing their job when they tried to scuttle a deal. Cousins never owed it to Sacramento to facilitate his own exit.

The Kings want to change their culture without Cousins, but they’re so far not setting a tone of trustworthiness.